Houston vs. Purdue: Picks, Predictions and Odds

We have a Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup on our hands on Friday in the men's tournament round of 16, when the Purdue Boilermakers take on the Houston Cougars in Indianapolis, Indiana. 

Purdue was able to dispatch its first two opponents - High Point and McNeese - thanks in large part to a significant talent and schematic advantage in those games, particularly when the Boilermakers were on offense. 

As for the Cougars, Kelvin Sampson’s team showed that it is well-equipped to make a postseason run, as Houston rolled through SIU Edwardsville before taking the best punch from an underseeded Gonzaga team and still pulling out a victory in the round of 32. 

Can Purdue pull off the major upset over the top seed in the Midwest Region, or will Houston knock off the Boilermakers and advance to the last eight for another season?

Let’s get into our expert Purdue vs. Houston picks, predictions and best bets for this Midwest Region men's tournament last 16 matchup on Friday.

Houston vs. Purdue betting picks and predictions

Houston -8.5 (-110)

Given that this game is being played in Indianapolis, this is almost a de-facto home game for Purdue, which is a rare sight for the lower seed in a second weekend tournament game. However, that doesn’t dissuade our expert from backing the much better team, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, in a matchup where Houston’s physicality, coaching and dominance on the glass should win out over 40 minutes.

The Boilermakers have been able to systematically break down their first couple of tournament opponents with an excellent offensive gameplan, something that head coach Matt Painter has excelled at in recent years. 

However, it’s important to remember that Purdue was fortunate enough to get great matchups against High Point and McNeese State, defenses that were willing to give Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn plenty of space to get off the shots they were most comfortable with. 

While Purdue’s offense is excellent (ranked eighth in adjusted efficiency per KenPom), this Houston defense is the best in the nation by any metric, and the Cougars are not one to make things easy for their opponents. 

Not only will this game easily be Purdue’s toughest test yet, but the Boilermakers will likely be in serious trouble on defense as well. 

Of the remaining units in the field, Purdue's defense is possibly the worst left, particularly when it comes to defending the rim. The Boilermakers are 341st out of 364 teams in two-point defense per BartTorvik, which doesn’t bode well against a Houston team that just got another excellent effort from big man J’Wan Roberts in the paint against a much stronger Gonzaga defense.

Ultimately, it makes sense to back Houston to cover as heavy -8.5 favorites in this game, making this our best bet of the contest.

Under 133.5 Total Points (-110)

This is going to be a correlated play with our point spread pick, as the best way for Houston to cover this spread is likely one where the Cougars win with their defense. Therefore, our game totals bet for this matchup is on Under 133.5. 

The Midwest Regional games are being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, which is not a venue that should be conducive to plenty of scoring. As shown in previous tournament games taking place in these massive non-basketball stadiums, the sight lines aren’t ideal for shooters and teams generally tend to start off a bit slow. 

Both teams play at a fairly slow pace, with Purdue ranked 300th in adjusted tempo per KenPom, while Houston is all the way down at 360th in that same metric. While the Boilermakers are typically very efficient, their effectiveness around the rim should be diminished by an elite Houston defense that ranks fifth in two-point defense per BartTorvik. 

With both teams operating at a slow pace and the added difficulty of the environment throwing a wrench into the proceedings, the Under is the only way our expert can look in this game.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Houston vs. Purdue odds

Houston	-450 ML
Purdue	+350 ML
Spread	Houston -8.5
Total Points	O/U 133.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.