The No. 16 Oregon Ducks (16-4, 5-4 Big Ten) travel to face the UCLA Bruins (15-6, 6-4 Big Ten) in a West Coast Big Ten showdown at Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles.
Tip-off is set for 10:30 PM ET on FS1.
Oregon looks to bounce back after a surprising 77-69 loss at Minnesota – their first loss away from home this season.
Meanwhile, UCLA has regained momentum after a rough start to 2025, winning four straight, including two key road victories at Washington and USC.
The Ducks, one of the most effective road teams in the Big Ten, will be seeking revenge after falling to UCLA 73-71 in their first meeting on Dec. 8.
With both teams playing at different paces – Oregon preferring an up-tempo style and UCLA leaning toward running offense in the half-court, this matchup presents strong betting angles.
Let’s break down the best bets for tonight’s game.
Oregon is 8-1 away from home this year and boasts a 4-1 true road record with impressive wins over Ohio State, Penn State and USC.
Even though Oregon is fresh off its first loss away from home, their ability to perform away from home is backed by analytics.
The Ducks rank 10th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating (2nd among Power 5 teams), making them a prime candidate to bounce back and cover as underdogs.
In their previous matchup against UCLA, Oregon actually outperformed the Bruins in multiple key areas, including a +10 rebounding advantage and free throw attempts and makes (10-for-14, 71.4%).
However, turnovers proved costly, as the Ducks committed 13 giveaways, which UCLA turned into buckets. UCLA capitalized on hot outside shooting (12-for-23 from deep), which is something they haven’t really done since the calendar has flipped to 2025. In fact, UCLA has not hit double-digit three-pointers since December.
A key factor in Oregon’s ability to stay competitive tonight will be the play of big man Nate Bittle (12.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG). He was a dominant force in the first meeting, finishing with 23 points, 10 rebounds and four assists, but struggled mightily in their recent loss at Minnesota, failing to score a single point.
If Bittle can return to form and establish himself in the paint, it will force UCLA’s defense to collapse, opening up perimeter opportunities for Oregon’s shooters.
Additionally, UCLA’s defense, while aggressive, has a tendency to foul too much, ranking 291st nationally in free throw attempts allowed.
This plays into Oregon’s hands, as the Ducks are 71st nationally in free throw attempts per game (21.45 FTA) and convert at a 75.5% rate from the line.
Oregon’s X-factor in this matchup is slashing wing TJ Bamba.
Bamba leads the team with four free throw attempts per game, but in the first meeting against UCLA, Bamba fouled out in just 17 minutes of play and was held scoreless.
With Bamba’s offensive tendencies aligning perfectly with UCLA’s sometimes overly-aggressive defense, Bamba needs to stay out of foul trouble and get to the free throw line at will.
Another potential swing factor is the health of UCLA’s leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (13.9 PPG), who is dealing with an ankle injury. If he is limited or ruled out, UCLA will be missing a key offensive piece, making it even more difficult for them to cover a spread of more than four points as favorites.
Given Oregon’s road success, rebounding edge, free-throw advantages and the fact UCLA is playing its third game since Friday, taking the Ducks to cover +4.5 is the right play.
The first meeting between these teams finished with 144 total points, and several factors suggest another contest that can finish with more than 140 total points. Oregon’s fast-paced offense is efficient in transition, consistently looking to push the tempo, while UCLA has found recent offensive rhythm, averaging 81.5 PPG over their last four games.
The Bruins’ offensive resurgence has been fueled by the sudden insertion of 7-foot-3 sophomore Aday Mara, who has scored in double figures in three straight games and provides a significant interior scoring presence.
The Bruins also take the second-most mid-range attempts of any Power 5 program, and this is where Oregon allows the most open looks.
While analytics will tell you the mid-range shot is the most inefficient shot you can take in college basketball, the Bruins do this well and could exploit Oregon’s defense in this way, just as the Ducks’ can draw fouls from UCLA’s aggressive defense.
With Oregon’s offensive strength coming from their ability to draw fouls and convert from the free-throw line, we expect more three-throw attempts than 14 in the last meeting, given UCLA’s struggles with foul discipline. Additionally, both squads shoot a respectable 34.2% from deep, and they combined to connect on 21 threes in the first matchup.
If they can replicate that perimeter success, the points will start to pile up.
Defensively, UCLA’s aggressive style does lead to forced turnovers, but it also results in extra possessions and fast-break opportunities for opponents. While the AP rankings might suggest further separation between these two teams, the numbers and UCLA’s win at Oregon tell us otherwise – these two programs are neck-and-neck this season.
Oregon has a balanced attack with multiple scoring threats, and if the game stays close late, free throws and a tight, back-and-forth affair could lead to a potential overtime scenario, helping the total soar over 140.5. Given Oregon’s fast pace, UCLA’s recent offensive surge, and the likelihood of late-game free throws, the Over 140.5 looks like the play.
Oregon | +160 ML |
UCLA | -190 ML |
Spread | UCLA -4.5 |
Game Total | O/U 141.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.