Ole Miss vs. North Carolina: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The North Carolina Tar Heels were one of the most scrutinized selections into this year’s men's tournament, with questions swirling about whether their brand name carried more weight than their full body of work.

Critics pointed to teams like West Virginia, which had a compelling case but was left out.

However, none of that matters now, as UNC not only secured a spot, but made a strong statement in their play-in matchup, dominating San Diego State 95-68 in Dayton.

Led by a stellar performance from RJ Davis, who shot a perfect 6/6 from three and dropped 26 points, the Tar Heels looked every bit the part of a team built for a deep run.

Now, they face a tougher challenge in the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Despite being the lower seed, UNC enters as a slight favorite (-2.0), setting up what should be one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round.

Let’s break down the best bets for this showdown.

Ole Miss vs. North Carolina betting picks and predictions

North Carolina -2.0 (-115)

Despite their lower seeding, North Carolina is favored for a reason. Their dominant showing against San Diego State showcased just how dangerous this team can be when they are at their best.

The Tar Heels shot 58 percent from three, 87.5 percent from the free-throw line and controlled the glass, all while keeping their top players fresh. None of their starters played more than 28 minutes, which is a huge plus given the quick turnaround.

Ole Miss relies heavily on isolation offense, led by former Virginia Tech standout Sean Pedulla, and their defense forces opponents into ISO-heavy possessions.

The problem? UNC thrives in ISO situations. Davis and Seth Trimble excel at creating their own shots, while sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau excels at finding open shooters and cutters off the dribble.

Cadeau’s elite playmaking skills and Davis’s veteran ball security could pair nicely to break down Ole Miss’ aggressive defensive scheme.

From an analytics standpoint, these teams are close. Ole Miss is ranked 26th in KenPom, while UNC sits at 30th. However, the head-to-head matchup favors the Tar Heels.

Ole Miss allows a fair amount of threes and struggles to defend the paint (ranking outside the top 200 in two-point field goal defense), which plays right into UNC’s hands.

Davis, a shot creator who takes and makes difficult shots, will get plenty of opportunities. Ian Jackson, a 40 percent three-point shooter, is another weapon who can create for himself and splash off the dribble.

Then there’s forward Jae’Lyn Withers, a corner specialist who knocks down 44 percent from deep and can punish Ole Miss for overcommitting inside.

One key battleground will be turnovers. Ole Miss applies heavy ball pressure and forces mistakes, but UNC has multiple ball handlers and takes care of the rock well. If the Tar Heels can minimize giveaways, they should be able to generate high-quality shots consistently.

Another major edge for UNC? Free throws. Ole Miss commits a ton of fouls due to their aggressive defensive style, and the Tar Heels capitalize at the stripe.

Davis is an elite free throw shooter at 88 percent, and North Carolina as a team is solid from the line. Expect them to get to the charity stripe and take advantage.

On the coaching side, Ole Miss' Chris Beard is one of the best in the business, but UNC's Hubert Davis has proven he can lead a deep tournament run, taking UNC to the national title game in 2022.

While Beard has the coaching edge, UNC’s talent and matchup advantages make them the better bet in this spot.

Over 156.0 Total Points (-110)

Both teams play at a fast pace and have the ability to put up points in a hurry, making the Over an enticing option.

UNC’s offense is humming right now. Against San Diego State, they scored 95 points while shooting lights out from deep. They rank 19th in offensive efficiency, while Ole Miss’ defense checks in at 23rd.

The Rebels will try to slow UNC down with their ball pressure, but UNC’s ability to break the press and get easy looks should lead to a high-scoring affair.

On the flip side, Ole Miss has plenty of firepower as well. Pedulla is a dynamic scorer, averaging 14.9 points per game while shooting nearly 39 percent from three.

He’s joined by five other double-digit scorers, including forwards Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield and guards Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray and Drae Davis. 

The Rebels rank 31st in offensive efficiency and they take great care of the ball. UNC, ranked 52nd in defensive efficiency, doesn’t force many turnovers, which should allow Ole Miss to get into their sets and generate plenty of clean looks.

Neither team rebounds well offensively, which means possessions are unlikely to be drawn out with second chances and resets.

This game is likely to feature an up-and-down, back-and-forth heavy style. If both teams push the pace, we could see a track meet with scoring bursts on both ends.

Fouls could also play a role in driving up the total. Both teams like to get to the free-throw line and more free throws typically means more points, especially late in the game.

Ultimately, with two offenses capable of scoring at a high clip and a game script that favors an up-tempo affair, the Over is a strong play.

Read more College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

Ole Miss vs. North Carolina odds

Ole Miss	+110 ML
North Carolina	-130 ML
Spread	North Carolina -2.0
Total Points	O/U 156.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.