Ole Miss vs. Auburn Men: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The second showdown between the Ole Miss Rebels (19-8, 8-6 SEC) and the No. 1 Auburn Tigers (25-2, 13-1 SEC) is set for 7 PM ET on ESPN2 at Neville Arena on Thursday.

Top-ranked Auburn looks to sweep the regular season series after taking down Ole Miss 92-82 earlier in February.

However, this rematch presents different dynamics, and the spread offers value on the visiting Rebels.

Ole Miss vs. Auburn betting picks and predictions

Ole Miss +12.5 (-110)

In their first meeting, Auburn pulled away late thanks to superior three-point shooting (14/28), rebounding dominance (41-30), ball movement (22 assists to 11) and a typical performance from National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome (20 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two blocks).

Ole Miss countered by winning the turnover battle and free-throw opportunities but lacked the firepower to close the gap. Star guard Sean Pedulla erupted for 29 points, while Matthew Murrell added 17. Yet, even with strong individual performances, the Rebels couldn’t overcome Auburn's depth and efficiency.

Despite coming off back-to-back losses and losing a spot in the AP Top 25, Ole Miss remains a handful for any host, covering +12.5 in all but one game away from home this season.

Their resume includes a neutral-site win over No. 25 BYU, a 23-point win at No. 19 Louisville and conference road wins at Arkansas, LSU and South Carolina. They’ve also played close in a neutral-site loss to No. 20 Purdue and tight conference losses at No. 14 Missouri and No. 24 Mississippi State.

Auburn, while dominant, has played close games at home, with Arkansas and Georgia recently giving them a challenge. Given that Auburn is already a near lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and bigger fish to fry with a grueling upcoming schedule – a road trip to No. 17 Kentucky followed by a road matchup with No. 12 Texas A&M before returning home to finish the season with No. 6 Alabama – this could be a trap spot where Ole Miss keeps things competitive.

Chris Beard’s squad excels at controlling pace, limiting big runs and drawing fouls, which are key factors against an Auburn defense that can get overaggressive. The Rebels get to the free-throw line at a high rate, and Auburn has shown vulnerability to foul trouble, particularly in their frontcourt.

On offense, Ole Miss should capitalize at the free-throw line. On defense, they should force Auburn into uncomfortable half-court sets.

According to Evan Miya’s Kill Shot Chart, Ole Miss ranks as one of the least streaky teams in the nation – they do not surrender big runs nor do they execute them on offense. While this caps their ceiling, it always makes them an intriguing underdog, especially when catching this many points. Ole Miss should be able to prevent the Tigers from running away with the game.

Additionally, Auburn’s reliance on three-point shooting could present variance in this matchup. The Tigers shot an unsustainable 50 percent from deep in the first meeting, a number unlikely to repeat itself. If Ole Miss can contest more shots and limit second-chance opportunities, they’ll have a legitimate chance to hang around.

The Tigers have far more star power and clear ways to exploit Ole Miss by taking and making threes, getting to the foul line and controlling the glass, but their focus may be slightly split with their upcoming challenging schedule, making this a potential letdown spot. Expect a determined Rebels effort to stay within striking distance and cover the +12.5 spread.

Over 153.5 Total Points (-110)

If the first matchup was any indication, this game sets up as another high-scoring affair. Auburn’s elite offense – ranked No. 1 in efficiency – exploited Ole Miss’s defensive scheme in their previous contest, torching them from deep and consistently finding open looks.

Auburn thrives in transition and ranks among the best in assisted field goals, meaning they can dissect an Ole Miss defense that gambles for steals and occasionally over-commits.

On the other side, Ole Miss’s offense is trending upward. Since February 1, the Rebels rank 27th in offensive efficiency per statistician Bart Torvik, but their defense has slipped to 73rd. Meanwhile, Auburn’s once-stingy defense has dipped to 35th over the same stretch, potentially allowing Ole Miss to keep pace.

Both teams attempt a high volume of three-pointers and convert at efficient rates (Auburn 36 percent, Ole Miss 35 percent). Auburn’s pace leads to quick possessions, while Ole Miss can push tempo when needed.

Free-throw opportunities should be plentiful – Ole Miss aggressively attacking inside and Auburn generating fouls through its inside-out offensive approach – meaning potential points with a stopped clock.

Even if Ole Miss struggles to keep up, Auburn has shown an ability to dictate pace and overwhelm defenses, meaning they could push the Over on their own.

Ole Miss, for its part, has weapons to contribute. Pedulla and Murrell provide perimeter scoring, and Jaemyn Brakefield’s size and versatility create mismatches inside. If Auburn’s defense continues its recent dip, the Rebels should be able to clear 70 points, pushing the total Over 153.5.

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Ole Miss vs. Auburn odds

Ole Miss	+550 ML
Auburn	-800 ML
Spread	Auburn -12.5
Total Points	O/U 153.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.