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North Carolina vs. Duke: Picks, Predictions and Odds

One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports renews on Saturday, as the North Carolina Tar Heels head to Durham to face the Duke Blue Devils. 

Duke seems destined to win the ACC considering the lack of strength in that conference. In fact, there really doesn’t seem to be a second team anywhere near Duke’s weight class, and the Blue Devils are cruising along at 10-0 in league play as the calendar flips to February. 

As for their hated rival, the Tar Heels were a preseason top-10 team, but Hubert Davis’s side has been a mess to this point. Even with the talent on this roster, the team just can’t win the games that matter. After all, they just fell apart on the road against a fairly mediocre Pittsburgh side this week, blowing a late lead to drop their third game in the last two weeks. 

Will the Tar Heels find a way to get back at their great rival, or will the Blue Devils run up the score at home? Let’s get into our expert’s North Carolina vs Duke picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated ACC showdown on Saturday.

North Carolina vs Duke betting picks and predictions

Duke -13.5 (-110)

It’s not often that we see a double-digit spread in this rivalry, but our expert is of the belief that this line is for good reason, as the traditional magnitude of the game might mislead us. 

In fact, it’s hard to see where the advantage is for North Carolina when looking at the metrics for both sides. Duke is first-rate in every aspect of the game, which is more than you can say for its opponent here. The Blue Devils are elite on offense and defense, they rebound the ball at a high level and they both shoot and make a ton of threes. 

As for North Carolina, the Tar Heels do not take many threes, nor do they make many of the ones they do take, and they are not great on the glass, particularly the offensive glass (245th in rebounding rate). 

There will not be a lot of second-chance points for the Heels in this game, and if Duke starts making threes like the Blue Devils normally do, this game could get pretty lopsided quickly. As it stands, the only real advantage for North Carolina comes with its hyper-fast pace of play, which puts this offense at the 20th-fastest pace in the country.

With that said, it’s really hard to speed up Duke, especially with the likely rebounding deficit on display throughout this game. North Carolina’s talent continues to be intriguing, but this seems like a trouble spot for the Heels against one of the nation’s elite squads. 

This is a matchup that could get away from the Tar Heels if they aren’t on their game from the opening tip. With that in mind, let’s lay the points with Duke -13.5 (-110) to knock off the Heels and establish firm control of the ACC title race.

Under 148.5 (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our expert will be backing the Under 148.5 (-110) as our game total best bet in this one. 

The Tar Heels offense has their work cut out for them, as Duke’s defense does a great job of making teams work for the best shot, with the Blue Devils sitting at third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. 

Therefore, there's an argument to be made that the Tar Heels’ offense will be suffocated by the swarming Duke defense on the road in what is sure to be an extremely hostile environment. On offense, the Blue Devils don’t mind grinding the game down (ranked 254th in pace) and forcing their opponent into playing a lot slower, which could really aid the under in a game where North Carolina’s pace of play could get slowed dramatically.  

All things considered, both offenses could struggle more than usual in a game that is sure to be a hard-fought slugfest at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Even in a potential blowout, the Blue Devils have too many avenues for success on defense, which is why we’ll be backing the under in this game. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAB on site.

North Carolina vs Duke odds

North Carolina

+625 ML

Duke

-950 ML

Spread

Duke -13.5

Game Total

148.5 O/U

Read North Carolina vs Duke: How to watch, TV Channel, streaming start time, injury report and stats on site

Read the latest NCAAB news on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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