New Mexico vs. Marquette: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The first round of the men’s tournament continues Friday as the No. 7 seed Marquette Golden Eagles take on the No. 10 seed New Mexico Lobos in the South Region.

Marquette, a program that has steadily progressed under Shaka Smart, is hoping to build on last year’s trip to the second weekend. 

Meanwhile, Richard Pitino and New Mexico will look to avenge their early exit from last year and notch their first tournament win since 2014. 

With both teams finishing the season on a bit of a downward trajectory, this matchup could be one of the most intriguing first-round battles. Let’s break it down.

New Mexico vs. Marquette betting picks and predictions

New Mexico +4.0 (-110)

Marquette has gradually improved under Smart, making a deeper run each year since he arrived in 2021. However, this year’s team does not have the same firepower as last season’s squad. The Golden Eagles closed the year on a rough 5-7 stretch and have not beaten a top-50 KenPom team since early January.

Meanwhile, New Mexico ended the season with a 26-7 record, featuring six wins over top-50 KenPom teams. 

Donovan Dent is the Mountain West Player of the Year and a dynamic scorer who will be tough for Marquette’s defense to contain. 

The Lobos are also the best defensive team in their conference and rank top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. If they can force Marquette into tough shots and control the glass, they have a great chance to win outright.

Both teams have proven their ability to compete at a high level, particularly earlier in the season, but the matchup favors the Lobos. 

Dent is one of the best point guards in the tournament, and their combination of balance on offense, size, physicality and defensive efficiency should make life difficult for Marquette.

New Mexico also played a tough non-conference schedule, including a loss to Pitino’s father, Rick and St. John’s, while logging wins over tournament teams like UCLA and VCU, as well as a victory over USC. Their ability to match up with high-major programs gives them an edge, especially against a Marquette team that has struggled against top competition in the latter part of the season.

Marquette’s biggest issue is its lack of interior presence. The Golden Eagles rely heavily on Kam Jones to do everything offensively, as they lost key facilitators in Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro from last year’s team. 

Without a true post presence, they could struggle to contain New Mexico big man Nelly Junior Joseph, who averages a double-double and dominates the offensive glass.

Marquette has the higher seed and name recognition, but this game is a toss-up. New Mexico has the better all-around team and should be able to control the tempo. Expect Dent and Joseph to have big performances and lead the Lobos to a potential upset. Taking New Mexico with the points is the play.

Under 152.0 points (-110)

While both teams play at an ultra-fast pace, this matchup sets up to be lower scoring than expected. 

New Mexico thrives by getting inside and scoring in the paint, while Marquette is a perimeter-oriented team that shoots just 32.5% from three. 

With the Lobos’ ability to limit second-chance points and Marquette’s struggles against physical teams, the tempo should slow down more than anticipated.

Marquette also does not rely on getting to the free-throw line, ranking near the bottom of the country in percentage of points from free throws. That means fewer stoppages and fewer easy points to push the total over. 

Additionally, New Mexico’s length and defensive intensity should bother a Marquette team that already struggles to create open looks in the halfcourt.

The key to the total is whether Marquette can force turnovers and convert them into fast-break points. 

The Golden Eagles rank 344th nationally in assists allowed, meaning New Mexico should be able to move the ball and create high-percentage looks inside. 

Nelly Junior Joseph should feast against Marquette’s undersized frontcourt, and New Mexico’s guards should be able to penetrate against a defense that ranks 199th in two-point field goal percentage allowed.

On the other side, Marquette does take care of the ball well, but New Mexico’s defensive pressure will force them into tough jumpers. Kam Jones is an excellent scorer, but the rest of Marquette’s offense lacks consistency. 

Without a reliable secondary scorer or a strong interior presence, Marquette could struggle to score efficiently, helping keep this game under the total.

Read more college basketball betting picks and predictions on site

New Mexico vs. Marquette odds

New Mexico	+145 ML
Marquette	-170 ML
Spread	Marquette -4.0
Total	O/U 152.0

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.