Mississippi State vs. Baylor: Picks, Predictions and Odds

One of 14 SEC representatives, Mississippi State hopes to march past Baylor into the second round of the East Regional.

Day Two of the men's tournament begins with a No. 8 vs. No. 9 showdown between two Power 4 teams, the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Baylor Bears.

The winner will likely get a shot at top-seeded Duke in the second round, but neither one will be looking past this intriguing matchup.

Although the Bulldogs struggled down the stretch of the regular season, an 8-10 mark in the high-powered SEC was easily enough to secure an at-large berth in the men’s tournament. 

Baylor finished seventh in the Big 12 with a 10-10 conference record.

Read below to see our experts’ predictions for Mississippi State vs. Baylor. 

Mississippi State vs. Baylor betting picks and predictions

Mississippi State -1.0 (-110) 

Mississippi State has compiled a 2-5 record in the last seven games, but there is no reason to be overly alarmed given the competition level in the SEC.

In fact, since November, the Bulldogs’ worst losses are in overtime to Texas (a No. 11 seed in the tournament) and by six points to Oklahoma (a No. 9 seed).

Since the start of February, they have destroyed LSU twice and defeated three fellow tournament teams, including Texas A&M by 16 points and Ole Miss by 10.

MSU should have the best player on the floor in Josh Hubbard. It is no secret that good guard play is pretty much essential to advance deep in March, and the Bulldogs have it with Hubbard running their offense.

He is only a sophomore but already has plenty of postseason experience after leading Mississippi State to the SEC Tournament semifinals and an appearance in the field of 68 (lost to Michigan State in the opening round) in 2024. Hubbard is averaging 18.7 points this season to go along with 3.2 assists.

Baylor also has a promising young star at its disposal in VJ Edgecombe, but he is only a freshman. The Bahamas native struggled in the Big 12 Tournament, going 4/13 from the floor in a quarterfinal loss to Texas Tech and shooting 1/8 from three-point range in the Bears’ two games overall (they defeated Kansas State in their first outing).

Baylor has dropped five of its last contests, including two at the hands of opponents who are not in the tournament (Colorado and Cincinnati).

With Mississippi State battle-hardened by formidable SEC foes throughout the year, look for the Bulldogs to represent well and advance in the dance.

Over 144.5 Total Points (-110)

This will be a fascinating contrast of styles between two teams who generally play at quite a different pace. Like most SEC representatives, Mississippi State loves to push the tempo, while Baylor is one of the slowest teams in the country at 68.2 possessions per game (No. 279 nationally in that department).

An Over bet correlates nicely with MSU -1.0, as the Bulldogs will have a better chance of winning and covering if the game is played at their pace.

In 12 of Mississippi State’s last 13 contests, the winning team has scored more than 80 points. The one exception is the 76-75 win at Florida, but even that game finished with far more points than Friday’s listed number of 144.5.

The Bulldogs boast plenty of depth, as nine different guys on the roster average more than 15 minutes per game. That allows head coach Chris Jans to rotate his men at will and keep them fresh to implement his up-tempo style of play. Five different players are scoring at least 8.9 ppg.

Baylor boasts four players averaging in double-figures. At 15.0 ppg, Edgecombe is the second-leading scorer on the team behind Norchad Omier (15.9 ppg).

The Bears also have two other guys scoring at least 8.4 ppg and two more after than contributing at least 7.2 ppg. That should be enough to send the total score Over 144.5 points.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor odds

Mississippi State	-120 ML
Baylor	+100 ML
Spread	Mississippi State -1.0
Total Points	O/U 144.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.