Michigan vs. UC San Diego: Picks, Predictions and Odds

What could be one of the best games of the first round of the Men's Tournament comes in Denver, Colorado on Thursday, where the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9) will square off with the upset-minded No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4).

The 12 seed knocking off the five seed is a common upset trend that we’ve seen occur many times over the years, and our expert is of the belief that the pattern could very well continue this week in this showdown in the South Region.

Just a few years removed from jumping up to the Division I level, UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, winning 30 games (most of which came in dominant fashion) en route to a Big West title and a shot at knocking off the Big Ten champion Michigan Wolverines in their first ever Men's Tournament game.

Are the Tritons well-equipped to pull off the upset, or will Michigan survive and advance to the round of 32?

Let’s get into our expert’s Michigan vs. UC San Diego picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated first-round matchup on Thursday.

Michigan vs. UC San Diego betting picks and predictions

UC San Diego ML (+130)

From a situational spot perspective, this Michigan team is coming off playing a trio of hard-fought games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title last Sunday.

Now, the Wolverines have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a well-rested UC San Diego team that is a very well-rounded unit, and the numbers back it up. In fact, the Tritons are one of the highest-rated mid-major teams ever by the predictive analytic sites, including KenPom, Barttorvik, Haslemetrics, etc.

Part of why UC San Diego will be a live underdog in this game is that this is a pretty difficult team to prepare for, especially on such a short turnaround. Compared to what Michigan has seen this season, the Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense (30th in two-point percentage, 30th in effective field goal percentage).

However, the biggest edge in this game for Tritons head coach Eric Olen and his team is their ability to force plenty of turnovers (ranked second nationally in turnovers forced), while also not turning the ball over themselves. This strength should especially come in handy against an extremely turnover-prone Wolverines offense (328th in turnover percentage) that could find themselves in big trouble on Thursday.

Lastly, Michigan is also due for some pretty significant close game regression after the Wolverines won a ton of games by five points or fewer throughout the back half of their Big Ten conference schedule.

All things considered, our expert is taking UC San Diego (+130) to pull off the outright upset on the moneyline in a game that should come down to the final minutes.

Under 142.5 Total Points (-110)

Given that the best path for UC San Diego to win is by dominating with their defense, our game totals bet for this matchup is on Under 142.5 total points (-110).

Much has been made of the perceived advantage that Michigan will have in the paint in this game, given that the Wolverines will have a pair of seven-footers roaming the court for most of the contest.

However, what most college basketball fans don’t know is that this is an excellent UC San Diego defense, one that is elite at defending the paint (93rd percentile in rim defense efficiency). The Tritons are extremely well-coached and should be well-prepared for whatever the Wolverines offense throws at them in this one.

Furthermore, while UC San Diego is a very balanced offense that passes, cuts and shoots it well from beyond the arc, this will likely be the most athletic team the Tritons have faced all season, so there could be a bit of adjustment period before they settle into the game.

All things considered, the Under is the only way our expert can look in this one.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAB on site.

Michigan vs. UC San Diego odds

Michigan	-155 ML
UC San Diego	+130 ML
Spread	Michigan -2.5
Game Total	142.5 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.