Michigan State vs. Illinois: Picks, Predictions and Odds

There is another excellent slate of college basketball in the Big Ten on Saturday, including a massive matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and Illinois Fighting Illini.

From a situational perspective, there’s a lot to like in the favor of Illinois, as the Illini are looking for revenge at home while Michigan State has lost three of its last four games and appears to be stagnating a bit offensively.

In the first meeting between these teams on January 19 in East Lansing, it was the Spartans who were able to come away with the win by a narrow score of 80-78. However, our expert came away with more positives from Illinois’ performance in this particular contest, and those positives could certainly carry over into a win and cover for the home team in this matchup.

Will the Spartans find a way to keep the game close, or will the Fighting Illini roll over their conference rival at home? Let’s get into our expert’s Michigan State vs. Illinois picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated Big Ten showdown on Saturday.

Michigan State vs Illinois betting picks and predictions

Illinois -6.5 (-110)

Illinois only losing by two points in East Lansing can be considered a good effort when factoring in that its starting point guard and arguably best player in Kasparas Jakucionis fouled out in just nine minutes of game time.

There were some controversial calls on Jakucionis in that game, so our expert would expect him to get a friendlier whistle at home this time around, which is massive for the hosts. Illinois showed that it can score with anyone in the first meeting, and the Illini have also since proved that they have the talent and depth needed to beat any team in this conference. 

The matchup seems to favor Illinois as well on Saturday, and it’s all about the styles of play with these teams. The Fighting Illini play a ton of drop coverage defense, which profiles well against Michigan State, as this style keeps the Spartans away from the rim and forces shot creation in the mid-range area. 

According to Synergy, the Spartans rank in the 71st percentile in rim attempt rate on offense, but with the Illini frontcourt duo of Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson Jr. anchoring the defense, Michigan State’s offense could have a difficult time generating baskets in their typical fashion. 

Additionally, the Illini are also a solid transition denial defense, as just 13.8% of opponents’ offensive possessions are played in transition (34th percentile nationally), and this is key when playing a Tom Izzo-coached team that looks to run early and often. 

There seems to be a talent gap in this contest as well, and this factor may be holding back Michigan State from defeating any top tier competition to this point in the season.

Illinois’ talented roster should be motivated to pick up a massive revenge victory over the Spartans and once again delay Izzo from breaking the all-time Big Ten wins record held by Bob Knight.

This is a game that should be dictated by the pace of the home team. With that in mind, let’s lay the points with Illinois -5.5 at -110 to knock off Michigan State and climb up the Big Ten standings.

Under 158.5 (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our best bet for this matchup is the Under 158.5 at -110.

On one hand, the style of play in this game is one that suits the Over on paper. After all, Michigan State should look to get out and run in transition as much as possible, especially since Illinois’ defense is excellent when operating in the halfcourt (fifth in two-point defense). 

However, this is simply a pretty massive total considering that both of these defenses rank inside the top 20 in Barttorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Michigan State’s offense could also struggle a bit if the Spartans are unable to get out and run in transition, like Izzo teams so often do. 

On the other side, Illinois’ offense is elite, but the Illini are still not a great three-point shooting team. Even at home, our expert can see the Illini hitting a few rough patches in terms of scoring in a high-intensity game of this magnitude. 

All things considered, both offenses could struggle a bit at different points in the game. With that in mind, our expert will back the under in what could be a slightly lower-scoring contest than what the market is projecting with this number.

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Michigan State vs Illinois odds

Michigan State	+225 ML
Illinois	-275 ML
Spread	Illinois -6.5
Game Total	O/U 158.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.