Florida vs. Maryland: Picks, Predictions and Odds

In the first West Region semifinal, we have one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the tournament between No. 4 seed Maryland and No. 1 seed Florida.

On Sunday, both teams showcased the essence of 'survive and advance,' winning their second-round games by a combined three points. Now, they meet in San Francisco with a trip to the regional finals on the line.

Maryland, led by its talented 'Crab Five' starting lineup, survived a thriller against Colorado State, winning at the buzzer thanks to a heroic shot by star freshman Derik Queen. 

Meanwhile, Florida outlasted the defending back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies in a grueling battle, coming from behind to secure a 77-75 victory. 

Florida boasts depth, offensive versatility and relentless pace, while Maryland leans on its elite starting five, defensive prowess and dominance inside the arc.

Maryland's battle-tested starting five will not go down easily. This game presents an intriguing challenge for bettors, as both teams possess strengths that make it difficult to determine the right side.

Maryland vs. Florida betting picks and predictions

Maryland +6.5 (-105)

Despite being underdogs, Maryland presents a compelling case to cover the 6.5-point spread. The Terps may lack depth, but with three full rest days, they match up well against Florida's explosive attack.

Maryland’s biggest strength is its frontcourt duo of Derik Queen and Julian Reese, both of whom have recorded double-doubles in the tournament. The Gators have more bodies to throw at them, but Queen and Reese's skill and physicality in the paint will be key in keeping this game close.

Maryland's guard play is also strong, featuring Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, all capable of scoring from deep. However, they face a Florida defense ranked fifth nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent from beyond the arc.

If Maryland struggles from three, they'll need Queen and Reese to dominate inside, which plays into the hands of Florida’s 17th-ranked two-point defense.

One significant factor in Maryland’s favor is travel fatigue. Florida played in Raleigh for the first two rounds but now must fly cross-country to San Francisco, while Maryland is making a shorter trip from Seattle.

The Gators’ depth advantage is a clear asset, but with proper rest, Maryland's starters should be able to keep this game competitive.

The Terps have been in tight battles all season, with every loss coming by five points or fewer. They match up well with Florida’s strengths and weaknesses, particularly with their ability to rebound and defend the perimeter.

The biggest challenge for Maryland is their lack of depth. The Crab Five – Gillespie, Rice, Miguel, Queen and Reese – play heavy minutes, and their bench production is minimal.

In their last game, all five starters logged 33+ minutes, while Jordan Geronimo was the only bench player to see 10 minutes of action. That’s not ideal against a Florida team that goes 10 deep and plays with relentless energy.

The Gators tightened their rotation to eight players against UConn, but they still had Thomas Haugh (27 minutes), Micah Handlogten (10 minutes), and Denzel Aberdeen (17 minutes) contributing off the bench.

This does feel like a game where Maryland could keep it close for 30+ minutes but struggle to keep up late. However, given Maryland’s season-long trend of tight games paired with the resilience they’ve shown, we can’t ignore their ability to cover.

Over 155.5 Total Points (-110)

Florida ranks No. 2 in offensive efficiency, and while Maryland ranks sixth in the same stat, the pace and shot-making ability on both sides should lead to plenty of points. 

Florida's ability to space the floor with shooters like Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard makes them a nightmare to guard. The Gators have seven players who can hit from deep, which could force Maryland’s frontcourt to step outside and defend.

If Florida can drag Maryland’s big men – Queen and Reese – out of the paint, it opens driving lanes and creates opportunities for offensive rebounds. That’s a dangerous combination against a Maryland team that is solid on the defensive glass.

While Florida excels at forcing mid-range jumpers, Maryland can counter with Rice, who is more than comfortable curling around screens and popping shots. The Terps also have a major advantage in drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, which can put the Gators in foul trouble.

Florida allows a high percentage of points from the foul line, meaning Queen and Reese should have plenty of opportunities to earn points at the stripe if their teammates can get them the ball with clean entry passes.

Another one of Florida’s few weaknesses is defensive rebounding. Maryland isn’t an elite offensive rebounding team, but if they focus on second-chance opportunities, their size can exploit Florida’s lapses on the glass.

However, this strategy could come at a cost, as it may leave them vulnerable to Florida’s fast break. The Gators love to push in transition, and if Maryland over-commits to offensive rebounding, Florida can exploit them on the other end with easy transition buckets, further fueling the Over.

This also feels like a game where the offenses heat up as the game progresses. Maryland is excellent at dictating tempo early, but Florida’s depth advantage and transition game should take over late. If the Gators can push the pace and force Maryland into transition defense, we could see an explosive second half that pushes this Over the total.

Maryland vs. Florida odds

Maryland	+230 ML
Florida	-280 ML
Spread	Florida -6.5
Total	O/U 155.5

Read the latest College Basketball news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.