The Big East always delivers some of the meanest, toughest, most physical games of the college basketball season and Tuesday night continues that trend on the biggest stage.
The No. 11 Marquette Golden Eagles (18-4, 9-2 Big East) travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the No. 12 St. John's Red Storm (19-3, 10-1 Big East) in a battle with certain conference implications.
Both teams enter this game fresh off games that tested their 'stick-to-itiveness'. Marquette fell short against No. 25 UConn, losing 77-69 at home in a game where they struggled to contain Huskies guard Solo Ball, who dropped 25 points and hit seven three-pointers.
On the other side, St. John's narrowly escaped an upset against Providence, winning 68-66 in a game where Jabri Abdur-Rahim (7.2 ppg) came off the bench and torched them for 27 points, including eight made threes.
Now both teams turn their attention to this showdown, with Marquette looking to bounce back and St. John's aiming to hold its ground atop the Big East standings.
Despite both teams featuring top-20 defenses according to KenPom, their offensive styles differ. While both teams love to push the pace, ranking in the top 25 in tempo, Marquette prefers to frequently launch three-pointers, though they lack efficiency from deep.
Meanwhile, the Red Storm prefers to score inside, ranking third nationally in percentage of points coming from two-point range.
Given these dynamics, we have two strong betting angles for this matchup.
Marquette is a battle-tested team, but there are several reasons to trust St. John's to take care of business at home.
First, their interior scoring could pose a major problem for the Golden Eagles.
St. John's thrives in the paint, shooting 52 percent inside the arc (above the national average of 50.9 percent), while Marquette struggles to defend inside, allowing opponents to shoot 53 percent from two (ranked 254th nationally).
With go-to scorers RJ Luis Jr. (17.5 PPG) and Kadary Richmond (11.5 PPG on 50 percent shooting) both excelling at attacking the rim, expect the Red Storm to exploit this weakness.
Additionally, the Red Storm boasts one of the best offensive rebounding units in the country, ranking 16th nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
Zuby Ejofor (14.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) plays a huge role in that and given Marquette's struggles on the defensive glass (ranking 216th in defensive rebounding), second-chance points should be a significant factor in this game.
If St. John's can extend possessions and drain the shot clock with their rebounding, it could frustrate Marquette and limit their ability to establish a rhythm.
The coaching edge also leans towards St. John's. Rick Pitino is a master at game planning and his ability to adjust mid-game should help the Red Storm capitalize on their advantages.
Shaka Smart is a terrific coach in his own right, but Pitino’s experience in high-stakes games is hard to ignore.
Finally, while Marquette has played well on the road, St. John’s has proven to be one of the most reliable teams at home.
Playing in Madison Square Garden gives them a significant boost and, with the added motivation of defending top spot in the Big East, expect the Red Storm to cover the short spread.
At first glance, a game between two teams that rank in the top 25 in offensive tempo would suggest a high-scoring affair. However, when we dig deeper into how both teams operate, the Under looks like the stronger play.
Both defenses are elite and they play a pressure-heavy style that forces opponents into mistakes.
Marquette forces turnovers at an elite rate, as shown against UConn when they turned the Huskies over 25 times while only committing three turnovers themselves.
St. John's employs a similar strategy, having forced 20 Providence turnovers while committing just nine.
Given that both teams like to pressure ball handlers and force uncomfortable possessions, we could see long stretches without baskets, which would favor the Under.
Another key factor is three-point shooting, or lack thereof. While Marquette takes a high volume of threes, they are not particularly efficient from deep, hitting under 33 percent as a team.
St. John's, meanwhile, takes very few threes and prefers to operate inside. While Marquette’s defense is vulnerable to three-point shooting, their opponent is unlikely to capitalize on that weakness because it simply doesn’t shoot many threes.
On the flip side, the Red Storm struggles to defend the perimeter (69th in points allowed from beyond the arc), but Marquette’s cold shooting in recent games suggests they might not be able to fully exploit it either.
Additionally, neither team gets to the free-throw line frequently. Marquette and St. John’s both rank outside the top 200 in free-throw attempts per game, meaning we are unlikely to see a free-throw parade that pushes the total high.
A major X-factor in keeping the total low is Marquette star Kam Jones. He remains the focal point of their offense, but his declining three-point efficiency is a concern.
Even if he puts up his usual 19 points, it’s uncertain whether his teammates will provide enough efficient scoring to push this game above the total.
Finally, despite their up-tempo offensive approaches, both teams' defenses force opponents into some of the slowest offensive possessions in the country.
If the pressure causes offensive disruptions, we could see long scoring droughts, which would keep the total comfortably Under 146.5.
Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.
Marquette | +125 ML |
St. John's | -150 ML |
Spread | St. John's -3.0 |
Total Points | O/U 146.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.