Louisville vs Duke: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Partner Authors Published: Mar 15 2025 11:17

The biggest matchup of the season in the ACC highlights another fantastic college basketball slate on conference championship Saturday, as the Louisville Cardinals will take on the Duke Blue Devils for the right to be crowned ACC conference tournament champions.

From a situational perspective, both teams are coming off emotional victories where they survived furious comeback attempts from their opponents.

Even though Duke is the higher seed and one of the best teams in the country, the Blue Devils are getting a lot of respect in this game, especially since freshman phenom Cooper Flagg is set to miss the contest with an ankle injury.

Will the Cardinals find a way to keep the game close, and even pull off the upset, or will the Blue Devils roll over their conference rival and win the ACC tournament championship?

Let’s get into our expert’s Louisville vs Duke picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated ACC title game matchup on Saturday.

Louisville vs Duke betting picks and predictions

Louisville +6.5 (-115)

Duke was mighty impressive in the first half against North Carolina on Friday, racing out to a 21-point lead and completely dominating their hated rivals, who had to have the game for their NCAA Tournament resume.

However, the Blue Devils squandered that big lead in the second half and it took a lane violation from North Carolina on a free-throw attempt that would have tied the game with under five seconds remaining for Duke to escape with a narrow victory.

Therefore, this is a bit of a tricky spot for Duke, as there isn’t much for this group to prove at this point in the season, and the Blue Devils are coming off a wild and emotional win over their bitter rivals.

Even though Saturday’s game is for a conference title, it could almost feel like a letdown compared to the stakes from the previous game.

On the other side, Louisville has been continuously overlooked this season, but the Cardinals are playing as well as any team in the nation, ranking inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency.

Pat Kelsey’s team hasn’t played Duke this season, which should be an advantage for an outfit that has a tandem of veteran guards who can really make things difficult on the Blue Devils’ backcourt. As long as Louisville can avoid fouling (30th in free-throw rate allowed) and hold its own on the glass (57th in defensive rebounding rate), the Cardinals should certainly be competitive for 40 minutes on Saturday.

Louisville can keep things close, and even possibly win the game outright. We’ll certainly take the points with Louisville +6.5 (-115).

Over 144.5 (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our game totals bet for this matchup is on the Over 144.5 (-110).

For starters, the style of play in this game is one that suits the Over on paper. After all, the Cardinals should look to get out and run in transition as much as possible, especially since Duke’s defense is elite in the halfcourt and should be able to load up on Louisville’s guards in that setting.

We know that the Cardinals play fast compared to the national average, but Duke’s efficiency on offense and ability to shoot threes at a high percentage should come in handy against a Louisville defense that does have a propensity to allow opponents to take and make threes (168th in three-point percentage allowed).

This total is fairly manageable for a title game, especially if it comes down to a free-throw shooting contest toward the end.

All things considered, the over looks worth backing in a game that should feature a fairly quick pace and plenty of points in Charlotte.

Louisville vs Duke odds

Louisville	+210 ML
Duke	-260 ML
Spread	Duke -6.5
Game Total	144.5 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.