Kansas vs. Houston: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Tonight's matchup between Kansas and Houston features two of the most storied programs in college basketball.

However, their seasons have gone in vastly different directions. Kansas, a perennial powerhouse and preseason No. 1, has struggled to find consistency despite a roster filled with talent. Houston has dominated the Big 12 in back-to-back years, boasting a 17-1 conference record and winning the 2024/25 regular season title.

For the first time in 80-plus weeks of college basketball, Kansas remains unranked this late in the season. Houston, on the other hand, has cemented itself as one of the nation’s best teams, currently sitting at No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in KenPom ratings. The Cougars have an elite defense and an efficient perimeter attack, both of which pose significant problems for Kansas.

Houston enters this matchup as a 9.5-point favorite (-110), and while that number may seem steep for a game involving Kansas, it is well warranted given the current form of both teams.

Kansas has just one win over an NCAA Tournament-projected team since November, whereas Houston has piled up marquee victories, including a road win at Arizona and dominant performances against Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU.

The Jayhawks' last game against Texas Tech was another example of their issues, as they hit just four three-pointers compared to Tech’s 15. Kansas's inability to stretch the floor has allowed defenses to collapse on Dickinson and force tougher looks inside.

Houston dominates the offensive glass, and with Kansas' struggles in that department, second-chance opportunities will likely be plentiful for the Cougars.

Kansas vs. Houston betting picks and predictions

Houston -9.5 (-110)

Kansas' struggles can be attributed to several factors, but their offensive inconsistency stands out. Despite having high-level talent like Hunter Dickinson and Dajuan Harris, the Jayhawks' offense ranks just 97th in efficiency since February 1st (per Bart Torvik). Their reliance on mid-range jumpers and a lack of three-point shooting (307th in 3-point attempts) plays right into Houston's defensive strengths.

Houston, under Kelvin Sampson, is known for making elite defensive adjustments. The Cougars force opponents into inefficient shots and dominate the offensive glass. Kansas has struggled with rebounding, which could allow Houston multiple second-chance opportunities.

The Cougars have also benefitted from stellar guard play. LJ Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan all shoot over 40 percent from three, making them one of the most dangerous backcourts in the nation. Their ability to hit difficult shots from deep will be crucial against Kansas' defense, which forces teams into taking a high volume of threes.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas had a chance to win but surrendered a six-point lead with under 30 seconds in the first overtime. The Jayhawks shot well from three in that game, but Houston still found ways to win despite missing key players like Emmanuel Sharp. With Sharp back and Houston playing at an even higher level, it is difficult to see Kansas keeping this one within single digits on the road.

Another key element to consider is Houston’s ability to force turnovers. Kansas has been prone to giving the ball away in key moments, and Houston ranks among the top teams in the country in turnover margin. If the Cougars can apply pressure early, they could build a lead that Kansas simply isn’t equipped to overcome.

Under 133.5 Total Points (-110)

Houston dictates tempo better than almost any team in the country. The Cougars rank among the slowest teams in adjusted tempo, and Kansas, while capable of pushing the pace, will find it difficult to do so against Houston’s disciplined defense.

Kansas's offensive inefficiencies should help keep this total low. The Jayhawks struggle to get to the free-throw line (ranking 360th out of 364 teams in free-throw attempts) and rarely take or make threes. Their offense runs through Dickinson in the post and features a lot of mid-range attempts, which Houston is well-equipped to defend.

Additionally, Houston’s offense will likely slow the game down even more, utilizing the shot clock and their offensive rebounding advantage to extend possessions. In their second meeting against Texas Tech, Houston's defense completely shut down a high-powered offense, and a similar outcome could be in store for Kansas.

In their first matchup, the game went to double overtime, yet the score still remained relatively low. With Houston controlling the pace at home, the Under looks like a strong bet.

Against a defense as stifling as Houston’s, it’s difficult to see Kansas suddenly finding an offensive rhythm. Houston also has a tendency to grind games down with long offensive possessions and elite rebounding, further reducing scoring opportunities.

Kansas vs. Houston odds

Kansas	+400 ML
Houston	-550 ML
Spread	Houston -9.5
Total Points	O/U 133.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.