Kansas vs. Arkansas: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The men’s tournament is less than 24 hours away, and we have a first-round showdown between two of college basketball’s biggest names.

The No. 7 seed Kansas Jayhawks will face off against the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks in the West Region at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island.

This game, scheduled for a 7:10 PM ET tip-off on CBS, pits two legendary Hall of Fame coaches – Bill Self and John Calipari – against each other once again. With Kansas mightily underperforming relative to preseason expectations and Arkansas looking to put an exclamation point on their second-half turnaround in year one under Calipari, this clash is shaping up to be a competitive battle.

Kansas (21-12, 11-9 Big 12) and Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 SEC) both enter the tournament as lower seeds than their head coaches are accustomed to, but both teams have plenty of talent and enough experience to make this a must-watch contest.

The history between Self and Calipari adds another layer of intrigue, as they’ve split their 12 all-time meetings, including two National Championship battles in 2008 and 2012.

The Jayhawks, once the preseason No. 1 team, have struggled with roster construction after whiffing in the transfer portal. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have faced their own turmoil in Calipari’s first year at the helm, including an 0-5 start in conference play.

With Arkansas trending up and Kansas looking to salvage a disappointing season, this game has all the makings of a hard-fought showdown.

A key absence looms large for Arkansas, as leading scorer and rebounder Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6 RPG) remains out with an injury. The Razorbacks will regain Boogie Fland, a talented freshman guard. Kansas, on the other hand, boasts an experienced lineup that has played in big games before.

With both teams emphasizing defense and struggling to find consistent offensive rhythm, expect a gritty, lower-scoring battle. Let’s dive into the best bets for this matchup.

Kansas vs. Arkansas college betting picks and predictions

Kansas -5.0 (-110)

Kansas may not be the juggernaut many expected in the preseason, but the Jayhawks still hold key advantages over Arkansas in this matchup. One of the biggest factors is experience – Kansas has a core of veteran players who have been battle-tested in high-pressure games.

Point guard Dajuan Harris and forward KJ Adams are former national champions with Kansas, and are particularly important in this one. Harris thrives in transition and has the vision to exploit Arkansas’ defensive lapses, which could be a difference-maker in a close contest, and Adams’ floaters and physicality in the paint should be in full force without Thiero in Arkansas’ lineup.

Arkansas enters this game with some momentum, having won nine of its last 15 games. However, Thiero’s absence is massive. Beyond scoring and rebounding, Thiero leads the team in free-throw attempts and steals, making him Arkansas’ most impactful player on both ends of the floor.

The Razorbacks will have to rely on freshman Boogie Fland, who has been out since January 22, to provide a spark off the bench. While talented, Fland’s return introduces chemistry concerns, as he struggled to mesh with fellow ball-dominant guards Johnell Davis and DJ Wagner earlier in the season.

Arkansas has struggled with offensive efficiency all season, ranking outside the top 200 in three-point shooting percentage. The Razorbacks generate most of their offense through transition and attacking the rim, but Kansas is well-equipped to handle that style of play. The Jayhawks rank 11th nationally in defensive efficiency and do a strong job of walling up inside, forcing opponents to settle for long-range jumpers.

Arkansas will need a heroic performance from its guards to overcome this defensive challenge, but with Harris, Shakeel Moore, and Zeke Mayo providing strong perimeter defense for Kansas, that seems unlikely.

Offensively, Kansas isn’t an elite unit either, but they have a more defined identity. The Jayhawks excel in the mid-range and near the basket – areas where Arkansas’ defense can be vulnerable. Hunter Dickinson, Kansas’ top interior presence, may not be the most athletic big man, but he has a strong post game and can take advantage of Arkansas not necessarily at the rim, but from 6-8 feet out.

The Razorbacks have excellent shot blockers in Zvonimir Ivisic, Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazille, but Dickinson’s ability to stretch the floor with his mid-range game could neutralize their rim protection.

Ultimately, Kansas’ experience, defensive discipline and ability to generate quality looks in transition give them the edge. Arkansas has the athleticism and depth to make things interesting, but without Thiero, their offense may struggle to keep up.

Kansas should have just enough to cover the 5.0-point spread in what should be a grind-it-out victory.

Under 145.5 Total Points (-110)

This game sets up as a defensive battle between two teams that have had trouble generating consistent offense. Kansas ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, while Arkansas also boasts a top-20 defense. Kansas shoots it fine from beyond the arc, but outside Mayo, nobody is a consistent threat.

Arkansas’ offensive struggles are well-documented. The Razorbacks shoot poorly from three, and their best offensive weapon, Thiero, will be sidelined. Kansas’ perimeter defense is strong and should make it difficult for Arkansas to break down the defense off the dribble and create high-quality looks.

On the other end, Kansas doesn’t have a prolific offense, either. While Dickinson provides an interior presence, he faces a tough challenge against Arkansas’ shot blockers. The Jayhawks’ best offensive chances will come in transition, but Arkansas has the athleticism to contest shots at the rim. With both teams preferring to play through the mid-range and interior, expect plenty of contested twos and long possessions.

The pace of play is another reason to like the Under. While Arkansas likes to get out in transition, Kansas is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country and does a great job limiting fast-break opportunities. If this game turns into a half-court battle, points will be at a premium.

With Arkansas missing its top scorer and Kansas’ offense struggling to space the floor effectively, this has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest. Expect a game in the low 130s, making Under 145.5 a lovely play.

Read more College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

Kansas vs. Arkansas odds

Kansas	-230 ML
Arkansas	+190 ML
Spread	Kansas -5.0
Total	O/U 145.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.