One of the biggest games of the week in the Big 12 features a pair of teams that could really use a confidence-boosting win on Monday, as the No. 11 Kansas Jayhawks host the No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones on Monday at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
Since suffering a catastrophic loss at home to Houston on January 25 - a game in which Kansas led by six points and was at the free throw line with less than 20 seconds remaining - the Jayhawks appeared to be beyond repair.
After all, Bill Self's group hardly ever loses multiple games at Allen Fieldhouse in the same season, to say nothing of how they lost that game.
Kansas followed up that disastrous effort with a narrow four-point victory over a middling UCF team last Tuesday, before ultimately losing a 21-point halftime lead in a loss to Baylor over the weekend.
It's safe to say that this is not what we've come to expect from the Kansas program, especially given the dominance of the Self era.
Will the Jayhawks find a way to get back on track at home, or will the Cyclones sweep the season series and hand Kansas another crushing loss?
Let’s get into our expert’s Iowa State vs. Kansas picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated Big 12 showdown on Monday.
Iowa State enters this contest attempting to complete its first regular-season series sweep of Kansas since the 2000-01 season, however, the Cyclones have been dealing with their own struggles in recent weeks.
This is an offense that has gone stagnant in crucial moments in recent losses to West Virginia, Arizona and Kansas State and it’s clear that Iowa State is still figuring out how to play without Milan Momcilovic in their lineup.
That doesn’t bode well against Kansas’ elite defense (ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency), particularly in an extremely hostile environment.
Tamin Lipsey is still playing well as the team's leader in the backcourt, but Curtis Jones, who had a massive game against Kansas last month, is in the midst of a major shooting slump.
Meanwhile, Keshon Gilbert was kept in check in the first meeting between these teams at Hilton Coliseum in Ames.
Given Iowa State's relative struggles on the road and a Jayhawks team that has the ability to create matchup issues in the paint with Flory Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson playing at the same time, Kansas should see plenty of success attacking the basket in this one.
Furthermore, opponents are finally experiencing some shooting regression on open threes against Iowa State and our expert wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffin remained in good form from beyond the arc on Monday.
All things considered, let’s lay the short number with Kansas -2.5 at home.
While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our expert will be backing the Under 144.5 as our game total best bet in this one.
This game presents a tall task for Iowa State, as the Cyclones will have to mentally and physically turn the page after suffering consecutive losses, while taking on a desperate Kansas team that also has revenge on its mind in a must-win spot at the Phog.
The Cyclones' offense certainly has their work cut out for them, as Kansas’ defense does a great job contesting shots from all areas (12th in two-point defense, 17th in three-point defense).
With that in mind, there are paths for the Cyclones’ offense to be suffocated by the swarming Kansas defense in what is sure to be an extremely hostile environment.
On the other side, the Jayhawks don’t mind grinding the game down a bit and it certainly helps the under that Kansas is outside the top 300 in three-point percentage on offense, while also sitting outside the top 300 in free throw attempt rate.
All things considered, both offenses could struggle more than usual in a game of this magnitude.
With that in mind, let’s take the under on a Monday night at Allen Fieldhouse.
Read more betting picks and predictions for college basketball on site.
Iowa State | +125 ML |
Kansas | -150 ML |
Spread | Kansas -2.5 |
Game Total | O/U 144.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.