Illinois vs. Rutgers: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Big Ten foes take center stage on Wednesday night as the No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini (15-7, 7-5 Big Ten) travel to New Jersey to take on Rutgers (11-11, 4-7 Big Ten) at Jersey Mike’s Arena at 8:30 PM ET.

The Illini seek to maintain their footing in the conference race, while the Scarlet Knights are trying to find some consistency in a frustrating season. 

The betting line favors Illinois by 8.5 points, a spread that reflects Rutgers’ struggles, particularly with the injury uncertainty surrounding freshman sensation Dylan Harper.

Illinois vs. Rutgers betting picks and predictions

Illinois -8.5 (-110)

Harper, a projected top-five NBA draft pick and the top-ranked point guard in his class, has been dealing with a high ankle sprain. He missed Rutgers’ last two games and was extremely limited in game time prior against Michigan State.

Head coach Steve Pikiell has emphasized that Harper will only return when fully healthy, making him a true game-time decision. 

If Harper sits out, the burden falls on fellow freshman star Ace Bailey, who leads the Big Ten in scoring at 20.2 points per game. Bailey has shown the ability to dominate in Harper’s absence, with recent scoring outbursts of 39 points at Indiana and 37 points at Northwestern, but Rutgers has struggled overall without Harper, recently falling 66-63 to an unranked Michigan team at home.

Illinois, meanwhile, is looking to build momentum after a tough stretch in January. The Illini were lauded as one of the best teams in the Big Ten earlier in the season, notching quality wins over Wisconsin, Arkansas, Missouri and Oregon while also competing closely with top-tier teams like Alabama and Tennessee. 

Their rough patch consisted saw them lose three of four games before a much-needed 87-79 win over a surging Ohio State squad last time out. 

Freshman Kasparas Jakucionis leads the way for Illinois, averaging 15.6 points, 5.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game. The team’s depth is also a major strength, as eight players log 17+ minutes, creating matchup problems for opponents.

Illinois boasts the 21st-ranked offense in KenPom, excelling in two-point shooting (56.5 percent, 26th nationally), offensive rebounding (36.7 percent, 20th nationally) and free throw percentage (75 percent, 66th nationally). Their biggest offensive flaw is three-point shooting, as they hit just 31.1 percent from deep (298th in the nation). 

This inconsistency from beyond the arc has contributed to some of their recent struggles, but they made a key adjustment against Ohio State, focusing more on attacking the rim in the second half. Against a Rutgers defense that ranks 95th in KenPom and struggles on the defensive glass (200th in rebounding rate), Illinois has a clear advantage inside.

On the other side, Rutgers has an offensive efficiency rating of 66th in KenPom and plays at the 85th-fastest pace in the country. The Scarlet Knights are strong at taking care of the ball, which will help against an Illinois defense that ranks near the bottom of Division I in forcing turnovers (356th). 

Illinois counters with the best two-point field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten, which could spell trouble for Rutgers’ inside scoring attack. Without Harper, or if he’s limited, Rutgers may need another superhuman effort from Bailey to stay competitive. 

Given Illinois’ depth and ability to dominate the interior, the Illini should be able to pull away late and cover the -8.5 spread on the road.

Over 158.0 Total Points (-110)

Despite the lopsided matchup, the total for this game is set at a high 158.0 points, which reflects the pace and offensive capabilities of both teams. 

Illinois ranks 64th in adjusted tempo, while Rutgers sits at 85th, meaning both teams prefer to push the ball and create scoring opportunities early in the shot clock. The Illini’s offensive efficiency, thanks to offensive rebounding, should allow them to get plenty of quality looks against a Rutgers defense that struggles on the glass and has been vulnerable in transition.

Even if Harper does not play, the Over remains a strong play. Illinois' recent shift toward attacking the paint should lead to a high percentage of made field goals, second-chance points and free throw opportunities. Morez Johnson, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, is poised to create extra possessions and easy buckets inside. 

Additionally, Bailey’s ability to put up big numbers means Rutgers should still be able to contribute its fair share of scoring. If Harper does suit up, the Over becomes an even better bet, as he provides an extra scoring boost and playmaking ability for Rutgers.

Illinois’ scoring efficiency and the potential for both defenses to fade if Illinois builds a lead means this should be a high-scoring affair. Expect both teams to push the tempo and put points on the board.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Illinois vs. Rutgers odds

Illinois	-380 ML
Rutgers	+300 ML
Spread	Illinois -8.5
Total Points	O/U 158.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.