Houston vs. Texas Tech Men: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Monday on ESPN delivers a top-10 showdown as the No. 5 Houston Cougars (23-4, 15-1 Big 12) travel to Lubbock to face No. 9 Texas Tech (21-6, 12-4 Big 12) in a battle atop the Big 12.

This is a rematch of their February 1st clash where Texas Tech stunned Houston on the road, winning 82-81 in overtime. That win came despite losing their leading scorer and rebounder JT Toppin and head coach Grant McCasland to ejections within the first few minutes.

Chance McMillian led the Red Raiders with 23 points in that game and his status will be a key factor to watch.

McMillian, who averages 15.1 PPG and shoots 45.4 percent from three, missed Texas Tech's 73-51 win over West Virginia due to illness.

If he plays, his presence could be pivotal against a Houston defense that dares opponents to beat them from beyond the arc.

The Cougars rank 323rd in three-point attempts allowed, but are nearly impenetrable inside, ranking third in two-point field goal defense, so Texas Tech will look to capitalize on their perimeter shooting once again in this epic matchup.

Houston vs. Texas Tech betting picks and predictions

Texas Tech +1.5 (-110)

Texas Tech has already proven they can compete with Houston and this time they have the added advantage of playing at home with Toppin available for the full game.

Despite Houston being one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, the Red Raiders only lost the rebounding battle by one in the first meeting despite Toppin being out almost the entire game.

Now, with him back in full force, his 9.1 rebounds per game will be critical in limiting Houston's second-chance opportunities.

Houston thrives on offensive rebounds, ranking 11th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. However, Toppin’s ability on the glass could neutralize one of their biggest strengths.

He has recorded double-digit rebounds in five of his last seven games and his presence should make it more difficult for Houston to generate easy second-chance points.

Another key factor in Texas Tech's favor is their ability to pressure the perimeter. Houston has been an improved three-point shooting team this season, hitting 40 percent from deep, but Texas Tech's defense does an excellent job of limiting three-point attempts.

The Cougars don’t take a high volume of threes, but they rely on their efficiency from deep to compensate for their struggles inside (49.5 percent on two-point shots, ranked 245th nationally).

If Texas Tech can take away the three-point shot while battling on the glass, Houston’s offense could struggle.

Additionally, the betting line movement suggests value on Texas Tech. The game opened with Houston as a 2.5-point favorite, but the spread has shifted toward Texas Tech, now sitting at just +1.5.

This movement hints at the possibility of McMillian being available, which would be a major boost for the Red Raiders offense.

Even without him, Texas Tech has multiple shooters who can step up, as seen in the first matchup when Kerwin Walton and Elijah Hawkins each knocked down four threes.

While Houston will be looking for revenge, Texas Tech will have plenty of motivation as well. McCasland and Toppin will want to make a statement after their controversial ejections in the first meeting.

With Lubbock set to provide an electric atmosphere and Texas Tech still in the hunt for a top Big 12 seed, the Red Raiders are in a strong position to at least cover the spread, if not win outright.

Over 131.5 Total Points (-110)

While both teams play at a deliberate pace, their offensive efficiency makes the Over a strong play. The first meeting between these teams reached 144 points in regulation and finished at 163 after overtime.

Even without the extra period, both offenses were able to execute against elite defenses, suggesting this total of 131.5 is too low.

Since February 1st, both teams rank inside the top 11 nationally in offensive efficiency, per College Basketball statistician Bart Torvik.

Houston has been particularly impressive, continuing to shoot well from three, while Texas Tech has remained one of the best perimeter offenses in the country, ranking 14th in three-point percentage at 38.4 percent.

The Red Raiders take a high volume of threes (98th in three-point attempts nationally) and against a Houston defense that let them shoot 12/30 from deep in the first matchup, they should have plenty of opportunities to score from beyond the arc.

While Toppin’s presence will be felt, Houston's offense should still benefit from second-chance points.

Houston is relentless and Texas Tech is not very tall, so the Cougars' effort on the offensive glass should still generate easy baskets. In the first matchup, the Cougars grabbed 16 offensive rebounds, helping them put up 81 points despite not shooting well from deep.

Additionally, while neither team gets to the free-throw line at a high rate, that could actually work in favor of the over.

Fewer stoppages in play mean a more consistent offensive flow, allowing both teams to capitalize on their efficiency.

The first game featured plenty of made threes and offensive rebounds, both of which should contribute to a similar scoring output in this rematch.

Defensively, both teams are still among the best in the nation, but their recent form suggests they aren’t quite as dominant as they were earlier in the season.

Since the start of February, both defenses rank in the 32-35 range nationally, which is a major step down for Houston and a peg down for Texas Tech.

This slight regression, combined with two elite offenses, points to a game that should comfortably go Over 131.5 total points.

With Houston's ability to score off second chances and Texas Tech’s lethal three-point shooting, expect another high-scoring contest.

Even if the pace is slow, the efficiency of the two offenses makes the Over a solid play.

Houston vs. Texas Tech odds

Houston	-125 ML
Texas Tech	+105 ML
Spread	Houston -1.5
Total Points	O/U 131.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.