Houston vs. Duke: Picks, Predictions and Odds

After a long and grueling college basketball season, all roads have finally led to this weekend, with only four teams left standing in the men's tournament.

A couple of titans in the ACC and Big 12 square off on Saturday, when the Houston Cougars will take on the Duke Blue Devils in the second of two games in San Antonio, Texas. The winner will advance to the title game on Monday to play the winner of Florida vs. Auburn.  

Duke absolutely rolled through its first four opponents in the East Region - Mount St. Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama - thanks to complete performances on both ends. Duke has been able to win in different ways all season long, and the Blue Devils look like the best team in the country. 

As for the Cougars, Kelvin Sampson’s team showed that it is well-equipped to handle whatever challenges are thrown its way, as Houston survived back-to-back stern tests against the likes of Gonzaga and Purdue, before demolishing an excellent Tennessee team last Sunday to advance to the semifinals.

Can Sampson lead Houston to the title game, or will Duke continue its historic season and make it back to the championship game? 

Let’s get into our Houston vs. Duke picks, predictions and best bets for this men's tournament semifinal matchup on Saturday.

Houston vs. Duke betting picks and predictions

Houston +5.0 (-110)

This game presents us with a fascinating clash of styles, and the winner will likely be the team that is able to impose its will on the game stylistically. 

Of the top teams remaining in this field, Houston is probably the toughest opponent for a team like Duke to deal with, especially since the Blue Devils are going to be seeing this type of aggressive, swarming team defense for the first time all season. 

Regardless of if Houston wins this game or not, the value is certainly with the Cougars catching this many points, especially since this profiles as a game that will have fewer possessions than most are expecting. After all, the total is currently listed in the mid-130s, which puts a premium on every point, so we can side with the underdog in this matchup. 

The Cougars have the innate ability to shape any contest into the ideal game they want to play, and that could will happen again on Saturday, making Houston an attractive wager at this price. 

Given that Houston is playing as well as any team remaining in this tournament, it’s hard to ignore taking the points with an elite defense against a Duke team that while excellent, is certainly not invincible against an opponent of this caliber. 

All things considered, taking Houston +5.0 to cover this number as short underdogs in this game is our best bet on the proceedings.  

Under 136.5 Total Points (-110)

Despite this being a much lower number than the other national semifinal contest on Saturday, it still looks the best approach to go Under 136.5 points in this matchup. 

Saturday’s games are being played in Alamodome, which is not a venue that should be conducive to plenty of scoring. As we have seen in previous men's tournament games taking place in these massive non-basketball stadiums, the sight lines aren’t ideal for shooters and teams generally tend to start off a bit slow. 

The path to the Over only gets more difficult once we factor in both defenses in this game, as we have two of the five best defenses in the nation per BartTorvik and KenPom ratings, among others. 

While Duke has the capability to play in the open court, both of these teams are more than content to slow the game down to a halfcourt battle, one where executing in the halfcourt becomes paramount. With both defenses operating at an extremely high level, don’t expect either offense to get out and run, especially once the second half rolls around and possessions become valuable. 

There is some concern about Duke’s red-hot three-point shooting in this tournament, but Houston’s three-point defense is so elite that it can be trusted to run Duke off the line and force the Blue Devils into tough midrange shots more often than not. 

All things considered, the Under is the best way to go in this men's tournament last-four game. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Houston vs. Duke odds

Houston	+210 ML
Duke	-260 ML
Spread	Duke -5.0
Total	O/U 136.5

Read Duke vs. Houston: How to watch, TV channel, start time, head-to-head record on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.