Florida vs. Houston: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The national title game is set: Florida vs. Houston, tipping off Monday night at 8:50 PM ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio. It’s a battle between a high-powered offense and a suffocating defense, between a breakout tournament star and a veteran-led team of grinders.

In one corner, the Gators are riding the momentum of a thrilling last eight comeback over Texas Tech and a statement victory against top-seeded Auburn in the last four. In the other, Houston has survived a brutal path behind its elite defense and timely shooting, culminating in a wild comeback win over Duke.

Florida’s story has been about offensive firepower, particularly from Walter Clayton Jr., who’s been nearly unstoppable in March. With 34 points against Auburn, he became the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to drop 30+ in both the last eight and last four games. The Gators have repeatedly turned the ball over – yet they've found ways to outscore their mistakes, leaning on elite shot-making and timely rebounding.

Monday night’s challenge is unlike anything they’ve faced in this tournament. Houston’s defense is historically elite, and its ability to dictate tempo and smother opponents in the half court could finally expose Florida’s biggest flaw.

Florida vs. Houston betting picks and predictions

Houston +1.0 (-110)

If there’s ever been a tournament where talent met toughness at exactly the right time, it’s this run for Houston. They’ve played the most physical, battle-tested brand of basketball in the field, and Kelvin Sampson has his veteran group locked into their identity: relentless defense, smart shot selection and brutal execution in crunch time.

Florida has gotten this far on firepower, but they haven’t had to deal with a defense like Houston’s. The Cougars rank top-five nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and thrive on disrupting offensive flow. Their last game is a perfect example – down 14 late, Houston locked in and held Duke to just one field goal over the final 10:30. This isn’t a team that rattles under pressure.

Florida, meanwhile,ranks 202nd in turning the ball over since March 1, and though they’ve gotten away with it so far, this feels like the game where it finally catches up to them. Houston’s defense is built to force mistakes and punish them with points in transition or through patient, efficient possessions on the other end.

The Cougars don’t just guard – they strangle tempo and force teams to beat them in isolation or from deep.

Walter Clayton Jr. has been brilliant, but the Cougars will make him work for every touch and every bit of daylight for a shot. They’ll switch, pressure and trap to make sure he can’t get into rhythm.

And if he does? Houston can still win a rock fight. This team beat Duke despite Cooper Flagg dropping 27. They have multiple shot blockers, the better coach, more experience and the best late-game defense in the country. Even if Florida gets hot, Houston can stay composed.

And don’t underestimate LJ Cryer’s championship DNA. The Baylor transfer already has a national title under his belt and scored 26 against Duke in the semifinal.

With Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts anchoring this group, Houston has the inside track to pull the small upset and win its first-ever national championship. Smart money backs the more disciplined, tougher team – Houston plus the point.

Under 141.0 (-110)

It’s always tempting to take the over in a national title game, especially with a player like Walter Clayton Jr. on the floor, but the matchup here screams UNDER.

First and foremost: Houston’s pace. The Cougars are one of the slowest teams in the country, routinely grinding games down to halfcourt possessions, using the full shot clock and forcing their opponents into long, frustrating offensive sets.

Look at Duke: an elite offense that managed just 67 points, with one made field goal in the final 10:30. That’s what Houston does. They take rhythm out of the game. And while Florida can get to the line and shoot threes, they’ve also turned it over at an alarming rate, which limits overall possession count and scoring chances.

Florida will want to run, but that’s easier said than done against a Houston squad that dictates pace better than anyone in the country. If this game gets slowed down – and history says it will – Clayton won’t be able to get as many transition opportunities, and Florida’s offense could bog down.

The Gators rank 124th in free throw rate on the season, and while they’ve improved that number recently, Houston has cleaned that up too, allowing fewer free throws in the tournament stretch.

Both teams struggle on the defensive glass but have excellent interior defenses and are two of the best offensive rebounding units in the country – equates to each team rebounding its own misses, not finding an immediate quality second-chance look, pulling it out and, in Houston’s case, bleeding clock and extending possessions. That’s a perfect recipe for the under.

This isn’t going to be a fast, high-flying game like Florida vs. Auburn. It’s going to look more like Houston vs. Duke. Expect a defensive war with limited possessions and halfcourt execution.

Add in the nerves of a title game and the fatigue of a long tournament run, and both teams may come out a little tighter. We like a 70-68 Houston win. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Florida vs. Houston odds

Florida	-115 ML
Houston	-105 ML
Spread	Florida -1.0
Total	O/U 141.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.