An absolutely titanic matchup between the No. 5 Florida Gators (25-4, 12-4 SEC) and No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (23-6, 12-4 SEC) in Tuscaloosa highlights another fantastic SEC Men's Basketball slate on Wednesday.
From a situational perspective, most would expect Alabama to be the more motivated team following a devastating road loss at the buzzer against Tennessee on Saturday.
However, it's hard to think that one team would be more "motivated" than the other in this top-10 matchup, and the Crimson Tide are in a brutal spot with a game against No. 1 Auburn on the horizon.
With that in mind, even though Alabama is at home for this game, the Crimson Tide are getting a lot of respect over a top-five caliber Florida team that has already shown the capability to pull off upsets on the road in the SEC.
Will the Gators find a way to keep the game close, and even pull off the upset, or will the Crimson Tide roll over their conference rival at home?
Let’s get into our expert’s Florida vs Alabama picks, predictions and best bets for Wednesday's highly anticipated SEC showdown.
Florida can beat you in a number of different ways, but it all starts with the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin.
With that advantage in mind, it wouldn't be a shock if Florida could spread out the Crimson Tide on the perimeter and generate wide-open looks from beyond the arc.
The Gators should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Alabama is not a team that creates havoc or forces live-ball turnovers on defense.
There's also the matter of Alabama's turnover issues when the Crimson Tide have the ball (180th in turnover percentage per independent statistician Bart Torvik), which doesn't bode well against a talented and experienced Florida defense that comes at you in waves and should be hunting for steals all game long.
Additionally, the Gators are elite on the glass, ranked seventh in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Tide are 161st in defensive rebounding rate. There should be chances for Florida to attack the glass and generate second-chance points as a result.
While Alabama is an excellent offensive rebounding team in its own right, our expert doesn’t expect the Crimson Tide frontcourt to be much of a factor against an outstanding Gators frontcourt that features a trio of seven-footers who should be able to hold their own on the glass.
Overall, the Gators are the more well-rounded team on both ends and our expert will be taking the Gators to win this one outright. With that in mind, we’ll certainly take the points with Florida +3.5 (-110).
While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our game total bet for this matchup is on Over 178.0 (-110).
For starters, the style of play in this game suits the Over on paper. After all, the Gators should look to get out and run in transition as much as possible, especially since Alabama’s defense is not built to slow down teams with speed and shooting, as we saw against Auburn and Missouri in recent weeks.
We know that Alabama plays extremely fast (ranked second in adjusted tempo), but it’s important to remember that the Crimson Tide have a major propensity to turn the ball over, which should lead to runouts and easy baskets for Florida on the other end.
This total is extremely high, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which this total goes way below the posted number, so our expert will take their chances with the more likely outcome.
All things considered, our expert will back the Over in a game that should feature a frenetic pace and plenty of points in Tuscaloosa.
Read more picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.
Florida | +140 ML |
Alabama | -165 ML |
Spread | Alabama -3.5 |
Game Total | O/U 178.0 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.