Duke vs. Alabama: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The East Region final between No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Alabama is as good as it gets in college basketball. Both teams are coming off explosive offensive performances in the Last 16, each hitting the 100-point mark.

Alabama shattered a tournament record with 25 made three-pointers in a dominant win over BYU, while Duke showcased its elite balance by outlasting Arizona, 100-93.

This game will feature Alabama pushing the tempo and firing threes at will, while Duke’s elite length and defensive versatility make them a nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide.

While Alabama’s offense is lethal when firing on all cylinders, regression from their record-setting three-point barrage seems inevitable. With Duke’s ability to contest perimeter shots, protect the rim and attack inside, the Blue Devils are in position to cover the spread and punch their ticket to the Last Four.

Duke vs. Alabama betting picks and predictions

Duke -7.0 (-110)

Duke matches up well with Alabama, particularly on the defensive end. The Blue Devils switch everything defensively and have the size to contest Alabama’s perimeter shooters at a level BYU simply could not. While Arizona’s Caleb Love was able to get hot from deep against Duke in the Last 16, those were high-difficulty shots that Alabama is capable of making – but not at a sustainable rate.

Alabama’s offense is built around taking an absurd volume of three-pointers, and while the Crimson Tide are certainly capable of getting hot again, regression should be expected after their historic 25-of-52 performance from deep against BYU.

Across the season, Alabama has shot 35% from three-point range, and Duke holds opponents to just 31% from deep. Against a team with Duke’s length and switchability, Alabama’s looks won’t be nearly as clean as they were against BYU’s overmatched defense.

The Blue Devils also own one of the best interior defenses in the country, ranking second nationally in two-point defense while keeping opponents off the free-throw line at the 17th-best rate.

Alabama relies heavily on either getting all the way to the rim or launching threes, so if they aren’t drawing fouls at their usual rate, their offense could become increasingly dependent on hitting difficult jump shots.

Additionally, while Alabama has faced the nation’s toughest strength of schedule, Duke has also been tested against elite competition. The difference is that Duke has more ways to score and defend in different styles of games.

Alabama’s defense has been inconsistent all season, ranking 96th in 2-point defensive efficiency, and their tendency to run opponents off the three-point line won’t bother Duke, which just posted 100 points by going 22-of-36 inside the arc and 23-of-27 from the free-throw line against Arizona.

Duke’s offensive efficiency should carry over into this matchup. Cooper Flagg is coming off a masterclass performance with 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, and he should have plenty of scoring opportunities inside against an Alabama defense that is prone to fouling and giving up high-percentage looks.

In fact, Flagg could top his regional semifinal performance and post another 30-point performance, while adding 10+ rebounds to his card for a double double.

Alabama’s pace could help Duke avoid its occasional offensive stagnation. The Crimson Tide will push the tempo, which will allow Duke to get into a rhythm offensively and attack a defense that struggles to string together stops. While Alabama is talented, deep, athletic and analytically sound, this Duke team looks built for anything.

Expect the Blue Devils to impose their will defensively as the game wears on and find consistency on offense, ultimately pulling away to cover the spread.

Under 174.5 (-110)

With both teams coming off 100-point outings, it may seem counterintuitive to bet the under. However, while both offenses are elite, each defense has the ability to take away key aspects of the opposing team’s scoring attack.

Alabama will dictate a fast pace, but their efficiency could take a hit against Duke’s length and disciplined defensive approach. The Crimson Tide’s heavy reliance on three-point shooting leaves them vulnerable to streaky stretches, and given their season-long shooting percentage, it’s unlikely they replicate their historic shooting night last time out.

Duke, meanwhile, could have a hard time shooting from deep where they prefer, and their focus on working inside the arc and getting to the free-throw line could slow the game down at times.

The Blue Devils also have the defensive personnel to contest Alabama’s perimeter shots without overcommitting, limiting easy driving lanes. If Alabama isn’t consistently getting to the rim or drawing fouls, they could struggle to maintain offensive rhythm.

Additionally, Duke’s defense is excellent at limiting second-chance opportunities, which could be a crucial factor in keeping Alabama from turning missed threes into putbacks. The Blue Devils’ ability to control the glass and force Alabama into tougher, contested looks should help keep the total under what is an extremely high number.

Expect Alabama to have cold stretches from deep, while Duke grinds out offense through high-percentage looks rather than an overwhelming barrage of three-pointers.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Duke vs. Alabama odds

Duke	-340 ML
Alabama	+270 ML
Spread	Duke -7.0
Total Points	O/U 174.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.