Baylor vs. Houston: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Two of the top teams in the Big 12 clash as the Baylor Bears travel to Houston to take on the Cougars.

Tip-off is set for 9 PM ET at the Fertitta Center, with the game airing on ESPN/ESPNU. Houston (19-4, 11-1 Big 12) currently sits tied atop the conference with Arizona, while Baylor (15-8, 7-5 Big 12) is in fifth place and looking to close the gap.

Both teams are coming off wins, but Houston has struggled to cover the spread in recent games, opening the door for value on Baylor.

Baylor vs. Houston betting picks and predictions

Baylor +9 (-110)

Houston has not been as dominant in February as it was earlier in the season. The Cougars started the month with an overtime loss to Texas Tech, followed by a 9-point home win over Oklahoma State as 21.5-point favorites.

Most recently, they defeated Colorado by 10, failing to cover the 14.5-point spread. That’s an 0-3 ATS start to the month, and they now face a Baylor team that is battle-tested against elite competition.

Baylor has played a gruelling schedule, already facing the top two KenPom defenses in Tennessee and St. John’s, as well as teams like UConn, Gonzaga, Arkansas, Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. The Bears are no strangers to physical, defensive-minded battles, which should help them keep this one competitive.

While Houston boasts the No. 3 defense in KenPom, Baylor’s No. 11 offense should be up for the challenge. A key factor in this game will be Baylor’s ability to take care of the ball.

Houston forces the 10th-most turnovers in the country, but Baylor is a disciplined offensive team and also ranks 24th in offensive rebounding. Super senior Norchad Omier, a transfer from Miami, is a double-double machine who has experience facing Houston.

In the 2022 tournament, Omier helped lead Miami past Houston in the Sweet 16 with 12 points and 13 rebounds. He, along with Josh Ojianwuna, will be vital on the glass against a Houston team that ranks just 113th in defensive rebounding and has an undersized frontcourt.

Another critical factor is the return of freshman sensation VJ Edgecombe. A projected top-10 NBA Draft pick, Edgecomb missed the second half of the Kansas game and the entire Texas Tech matchup but returned against UCF, posting 17 points and five assists in 27 minutes. His presence, along with the experience of Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, Langston Love and Omier, gives Baylor a legitimate chance to hang with Houston and cover the spread.

Defensively, Baylor has been surprisingly strong over the past few games. According to Bart Torvik’s rankings, Baylor’s defense has been the 48th-best in the nation over the last three games, while Houston’s has shockingly slipped to 111th in the same span.

Baylor has also improved its free-throw rate, ranking 75th in the country in that category over the last three games. That’s significant against a Houston defense that has been sending opponents to the line at a high clip.

With Houston struggling to cover spreads and Baylor’s offense capable of matching up well against the Cougars’ defense, taking Baylor +9 is the best value play on the board.

Over 132 (-110)

Despite Houston’s reputation for elite defense and a slower pace, this matchup has several factors that point to the over. Baylor ranks 272nd in tempo, which aligns with Houston’s preference for a slow game, but both teams have efficient offensive weapons that can push the total past 132.

Houston has the No. 8 KenPom offense, while Baylor’s defense ranks 64th. The Bears also force a fair amount of turnovers, but Houston is elite at taking care of the basketball, which should allow them to get plenty of quality looks.

Houston is also one of the bestoffensive-reboundingg teams in the country, and Baylor ranks just 238th in defensive rebounding, meaning second-chance points should be plentiful for the Cougars.

From beyond the arc, Houston shoots 39.3% from three, ranking seventh nationally. However, they don’t attempt a high volume of threes, sitting at 301st in attempts.

That could change against a Baylor defense that allows opponents to shoot 36.8% from deep, ranking 329th in the country. If Houston adjusts and takes more three-point attempts, they could help push this game toward the over.

On the other end, Baylor shoots a solid 35.7 percent from three, which is crucial against a Houston defense that forces opponents to take a lot of perimeter shots.

While Houston’s two-point defense is elite (No. 2 nationally), Baylor doesn’t rely much on scoring inside, further playing into the likelihood of a higher-scoring game through outside shooting and offensive rebounds.

Additionally, free throws could be a factor in driving up the total. While both teams are near the bottom in free-throw attempts per game, Baylor has been getting to the line far more frequently in recent weeks.

Houston’s aggressive defense can lead to fouls, and with Baylor converting at a solid rate, those extra points could help the total go over.

Given Baylor’s offensive efficiency, Houston’s potential for increased three-point volume and the likelihood of both teams generating second-chance opportunities, the over 132 is a strong play.

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Baylor vs. Houston odds

Baylor	+350 ML
Houston	-450 ML
Spread	Houston -9
Total	O/U 132.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.