Auburn vs. Michigan State: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The South Region final rolls on with a marquee showdown between No. 1 seed Auburn and No. 2 seed Michigan State. The two teams will battle it out at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sunday, March 30, at 5:05 PM ET, with the winner advancing to the Last Four. The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS, and should be one of the most compelling matchups of the tournament.

Michigan State arrives in this game after a gritty 73-70 victory over Ole Miss in the Last 16. The Spartans fell behind by 10 in the first half but finished strong, controlling most of the second half en route to the win.

Jase Richardson and Coen Carr were instrumental, combining for 35 points on an efficient 12-of-18 shooting, with Richardson knocking down four threes. While Michigan State shockingly lost both the rebounding and fast-break points battles, they won in the paint, outscoring Ole Miss 36-30.

More importantly, the Spartans’ experience and poise under pressure once again shone through.

Auburn, meanwhile, had its own test in the Last 16, facing No. 5 seed Michigan. For the first 30 minutes, it was a tight, back-and-forth contest, with Auburn even trailing 48-39 with 12 minutes remaining.

In the final stretch, however, the Tigers turned on the jets, going on a massive run to pull away for a 78-65 win. Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones were electric, each scoring 20 points, while first-team All-American Johni Broome was dominant inside, posting 22 points and 16 rebounds. 

Auburn’s defense was particularly impressive, holding Michigan’s star big man Vlad Goldin to just 2-of-9 shooting. However, turnovers (15 total) and poor three-point shooting (under 30%) left some concerns heading into this matchup.

Auburn is fast, athletic, and aggressive defensively, while Michigan State (also fast) plays a more disciplined, physical, old-school brand of basketball. With the Tigers favored by 5.5 points, can the Spartans keep this one close?

Auburn vs. Michigan State betting picks and predictions

Michigan State +5.0 (-110)

The last time Michigan State failed to cover a +5.0 spread was back on February 1st at USC when the Trojans handed them a 70-64 loss. Prior to that, their only other defeats by more than five points came against Memphis (by 8) and Kansas (by 9) back in November. Simply put, the Spartans have been incredibly tough to beat by a wide margin all season.

One of the biggest reasons for this is that Tom Izzo’s squad is built on the fundamentals: defense, rebounding, transition play and making clutch plays in key moments. Despite their glaring struggles from deep – MSU ranks 318th in the nation in three-point shooting at just 31.1% – they’ve found ways to win by excelling in other areas.

Auburn’s defense is designed to take away the three-point shot, but that actually plays right into Michigan State’s hands. The Spartans don’t rely on the deep ball to generate offense; instead, they attack the paint, play through their forwards and dominate the offensive glass. That could be problematic for Auburn, which, despite ranking 34th in interior defense, struggles at times as a defensive rebounding unit.

One of Auburn’s biggest weaknesses is fouling. The Tigers are among the worst in the country in terms of sending opponents to the free-throw line, and Michigan State is more than capable of exploiting that. The Spartans get a large percentage of their points from the stripe and shoot a solid 77.8% as a team. In what projects to be a close game, free throws could be the difference.

Physically, Michigan State has the athletes to match Auburn’s length and explosiveness. Coen Carr, one of the best leapers in college basketball, is a difference-maker in transition, while the Spartans’ overall size and strength should allow them to hold their own inside. Expect MSU to impose its will on the boards and create plenty of second-chance opportunities.

Under 147.5 (-110)

While both teams have offensive paths to success, this game has the makings of a defense-first battle.

Auburn is a balanced offensive team but prefers to shoot from beyond the arc. However, Michigan State’s perimeter defense is elite, allowing opponents to shoot just 28% from three – the second-best mark in the country. That could force Auburn into tough, contested shots, limiting their offensive efficiency.

Johni Broome will be a focal point for Auburn’s offense, as he has been all season. He has a great matchup against a Michigan State interior defense that ranks just 102nd in two-point field goal percentage allowed. If the Tigers can feed him, he should be able to put up big numbers. The challenge is getting the ball to him cleanly against a disciplined MSU defense that thrives on contesting entry passes.

On the other side, Michigan State’s offensive approach also suggests a lower-scoring game. The Spartans like to push in transition but their lack of three-point shooting translates to a lot of mid-range jumpers in half-court sets – much to the dismay of analytics – which can lead to droughts.

At the end of the day, both teams are capable of making life difficult for opposing shooters. Auburn’s aggressive perimeter defense forces opponents into rushed shots, while Michigan State’s ability to contest threes and protect the paint wears on opponents over the course of 40 minutes.

Expect a hard-fought, intense matchup where Michigan State’s rebounding, defense and free-throw shooting keep them in it until the final buzzer. Auburn may escape with a win thanks to big plays from Broome and clutch shooting from its guards, but the Spartans should cover the +5.5 spread.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Auburn vs. Michigan State odds

Auburn	-225 ML
Michigan State	+185 ML
Spread	Auburn -5.0
Total Points	O/U 147.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.