Auburn vs. Alabama: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The #1 Auburn Tigers and #2 Alabama Crimson Tide face off in what could be the biggest SEC matchup in years.

This isn’t football, this is a battle for basketball supremacy between fierce in-state rivals, both boasting dominant seasons and legitimate national championship aspirations.

Auburn enters with a stellar 22-2 record, including a 10-1 mark in conference play. Their only two losses came against #3 Duke in early December and a hard-fought defeat to #3 Florida last weekend.

The Tigers own an impressive resume with wins over Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina, Purdue, Tennessee and Ole Miss.

Alabama, meanwhile, stands at 21-3 overall and 10-1 in the SEC, with its losses coming against Purdue, Oregon and a home setback to Ole Miss.

However, the Crimson Tide have secured key wins against Illinois, Houston, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Texas. Despite Auburn’s slightly better resume, Alabama holds home-court advantage in this rivalry showdown.

Auburn vs. Alabama betting picks and predictions

Alabama -1.5 (-115)

Auburn’s offense, ranked #1 in KenPom, faces Alabama’s defense, which ranks 40th. Conversely, Alabama’s offense, the second-most efficient in the nation, will challenge Auburn’s 17th-ranked defense.

Auburn is led by Wooden Award contender Johni Broome, who is averaging 18.1 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting over 50% from the field.

The 6’10” senior has historically performed well against Alabama, dropping 24 and 25 points in two meetings last season.

Surrounding Broome is a deep supporting cast, including Chad Baker-Mazara (12.2 PPG), five-star freshman Tahaad Pettiford (11.5 PPG), Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly (10.8 PPG), senior guard Denver Jones (10.5 ppg) and senior forward Chaney Johnson (10.2 ppg).

Throw in the defensive and rebounding presence of 6’11” senior Dylan Cardwell, and Auburn has one of the deepest, most balanced teams in the country.

Alabama counters with its own star power in Mark Sears, a dynamic 5th-year senior guard averaging 17.8 points and nearly five assists per game.

The Tide’s success also hinges on Grant Nelson, a 6’10” forward who is putting up 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. This duo was instrumental in spearheading Alabama’s run to the Final Four last year.

The X-factor in this game is sophomore guard Aden Holloway, who transferred from Auburn after a disappointing freshman season, but who has found his rhythm in Tuscaloosa.

Holloway is shooting 50% from three in SEC play, averaging 11.8 points per game, and his scoring punch could be a difference-maker against his former team.

Alabama’s supporting cast includes freshman standout Labaron Philon (10.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.5 apg) and experienced guard Chris Youngblood (9.7 ppg, 36.6% 3PT).

Their frontcourt rotation features Derrion Reid, Cliff Omoruyi, Mouhamed Dioubate and Jarin Stevenson, who provide size and defensive versatility.

It’s scary how similar these two teams are in many ways, but Alabama has a clear path to success by getting to the free-throw line. Auburn ranks 269th nationally in free throw attempts allowed, while Alabama is 18th in free throw attempts per game.

Expect Sears, Holloway and Philon to attack the rim aggressively to exploit this weakness. Additionally, Alabama is an elite offensive rebounding team (15th nationally), and Auburn is just 176th in defensive rebounding, which could allow the Tide to extend possessions and rack up easy points. 

While both offenses depend on the three-ball plenty, it’s the biggest part of Auburn’s game. The Tide defend the three-point line exceptionally well, severely limiting attempts and holding opponents to below 30% from deep.

This could neutralize Auburn’s inside-out, perimeter-focused offense and force them into tough mid-range shots. 

And, while both defenses are top-notch in limiting assists, Alabama has slightly better guard play and better creators who can handle going one-on-one.

Auburn’s offense will be extremely reliant on the individual playmaking from Broome and Pettiford, and supporting members like Kelly and Jones may not be able to get going in this matchup. 

Another area of concern for Auburn is pace of play. While the Tigers can get up and down, few teams can do so like the Crimson Tide and we expect Alabama to dictate tempo on their own floor.

While turnovers can cost Alabama, Auburn does not focus on creating a lot of turnovers.

With the home-court advantage, superior guard play and an ability to dictate the pace, Alabama should edge out Auburn in a tight contest.

Over 172.5 (-110)

This game features the top two offenses in the nation per KenPom, making a high-scoring affair highly likely.

Both teams play at a blistering pace, but Auburn prefers quick half-court sets to Alabama pushing the tempo in transition.

While both squads’ three-point shooting could be neutralized by defenses that excel at taking the long ball away, we still like Over 172.5 total points.

That is, in part, because both offenses are top 25 in offensive rebounding and both defenses are middle of the pack in defensive rebounding.

Both teams should generate extra possessions after misses, leading to easy buckets inside or kick-outs for open threes. 

Defensively, neither team is known for forcing turnovers. Alabama ranks outside the top 150 in turnover creation, while Auburn doesn’t press aggressively either.

This means both teams will get their fair share of shot attempts, further supporting the over.

With two high-powered offenses and multiple elite playmakers, the game should produce plenty of points, even if three-point shooting is limited.

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Auburn vs. Alabama odds

Auburn	-102 ML
Alabama	-118 ML
Spread	Alabama -1.5
Total Points	O/U 172.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.