Duke vs. Arizona: Picks, Predictions and Odds

We've got a massive matchup on our hands in the round of 16 on Thursday, as the Arizona Wildcats square off against the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in the East Region.

The Wildcats won a hard-fought game over their former Pac-12 rival Oregon, but it sure wasn't easy, as they needed to rally from an early double-digit deficit and hit all of their free throws late to advance.

As for the Blue Devils, it was business as usual in a dominant victory over Baylor to close out a successful opening weekend of the tournament.

Duke seemed to be going through the motions at points in the game, so for the Blue Devils to still emerge with a stress-free, 23-point victory speaks volumes about how well the team is playing.

Will Arizona be able to spring a massive upset on Thursday, or will Duke keep on rolling and advance to the regional final?

Let’s get into our Arizona vs. Duke picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated men's tournament round of 16 matchup on Thursday.

Duke vs. Arizona betting picks and predictions

Arizona +9.5 (-110)

Duke has looked like a juggernaut in this tournament, which has inflated the spread a bit.

While the Blue Devils are the deserving national title favorite heading into this game, it’s important to remember that this will be the toughest matchup it’s faced to this point by a considerable margin.

On paper, Arizona has the athletes to hang with the Blue Devils’ elite talent at all positions and, while that is easier said than done, the Wildcats also have the advantage of clicking at the right time heading into this one.

After all, head coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has won four of their last five games while also playing some of their best defense of the season in that span. 

The wear and tear of a full Big 12 conference slate has seemed to strengthen the resolve of this Arizona team and given it some much-needed belief heading into the postseason.

On the court, expect the Wildcats to stay close in this game with their top-10 offense (Barttorvik), excellent offensive rebounding profile and strong free-throw shooting percentages.

If Arizona can get second chance points and get to the line consistently, it’ll have a chance to win this one outright.

As for the Blue Devils, this is obviously a complete team, one that continues to impress as the season nears its conclusion. However, the big unknown in this game is how Duke will adjust to finally playing a top 15 caliber team. 

It’s hard to account for the step up in competition that the Blue Devils will see in this game. The last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s class from a talent and/or statistical perspective, it lost outright to Clemson. 

It's hard to pick against Duke outright on Thursday, but Arizona is certainly a live underdog and should do enough to keep things close.

With that in mind, we’ll be taking Arizona +9.5 at -110 to cover the spread in the underdog role, making the Wildcats one of our best bets of the last 16 slate.

Over 153.5 Total Points (-110)

Given that both of these offenses should hold edges over the opposing defenses in this matchup, our expert’s total points bet for this one is on Over 153.5 at -110. 

In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Wildcats were able to cover the spread and the game jumps above this total as a result, as that is the most likely avenue for Arizona to stay within 9.5 points.  

Duke is not a team that pushes the tempo at all (270th in pace), but the Blue Devils are extremely efficient on the offensive end.

Jon Scheyer’s team is the top-rated offense in the nation by efficiency and is a machine from all areas of the floor, ranking first in effective field goal percentage, fifth in two-point percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. 

On the other side, Arizona loves to get out and run, and the Wildcats should be incentivized to grab some easy buckets in the early going, especially considering how stingy Duke is in the halfcourt. 

Lastly, while Duke’s defense is the much stronger unit in this game, neither team is perfect on that end, as the Blue Devils are ranked 151st in turnovers forced, while the Wildcats are 238th in that same metric. 

All things considered, the Over is the only way to look in Thursday’s matchup. 

Read more College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

Duke vs. Arizona odds

Arizona	+390 ML
Duke	-525 ML
Spread	Duke -9.5
Total	O/U 153.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.