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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans Game 4: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Minnesota Timberwolves became the first team to sweep a series and advance to the second round, and the Oklahoma City Thunder have the chance to do likewise when they take on the Pelicans in New Orleans on Monday night.

Considering the context of the matchup, it’s not surprising to find a No. 1 seed up 3-0 in a series against a No. 8 seed, particularly one that is without arguably its best player, Zion Williamson.

Even still, the Thunder are young and inexperienced when it comes to postseason play, and were only a one-point favorite in Game 3, while there were plenty of doubters of their quality at the start of this series.

Led by star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a stellar defense over the course of the regular season, the Thunder have quickly assured many that this season was no fluke.

After escaping Game 1 with a two-point win, the Thunder coasted in both Game 2 and Game 3. Will the same happen in Game 4?

The action tips off at 8:30 PM ET on NBA TV, and we get you set with game picks, predictions, player props and odds. 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans betting picks and predictions

Thunder -5.0 (-105)

Combining the regular season and the playoffs, the Thunder have now defeated the Pelicans in five straight games. Three of those wins have come in the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, all by margins of seven points or more, which includes a dominant 106-85 victory in Game 3 on Saturday.

The only contest in the last five meetings the Pelicans have managed more than 92 points came on March 26 in the final regular season battle, when the Thunder won 119-112. 

The difference in that particular game was that New Orleans' offense was led by Zion Williamson, who contributed 29 points, 10 assists and five rebounds.

Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are proven NBA players for the Pelicans, but without the dynamic ability and athleticism of Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense, which ranked 11th in efficiency throughout the regular season with Williamson contributing, has not looked good enough in the playoffs so far. 

Williamson allowed the Pelicans to play in transition and play offense inside-out with bully ball in the paint.

Without their star man, the Pelicans’ offense has lost explosiveness and has really struggled against what is an admittedly phenomenal Thunder defense.

With Williamson, this matchup could have been a fair, back-and-forth fight. Without Williamson, the Thunder have dominated.

Oklahoma City finished top five in offensive and defensive rating in the regular season and was one of the most consistent teams throughout their 57-win campaign.

The Thunder have the definitive best player on the floor in this matchup in SGA, while they also have more weapons and depth around him, highlighted by capable second scorer Jalen Williams, two-way threat Chet Holmgren, playmaker Josh Giddey, defensive specialist Luguentz Dort and emerging rookie Cason Wallace. 

The Pelicans' weak offense has offered no reason to believe they can stave off a sweep on their home floor tonight.

Take the Thunder to sweep and cover their third consecutive spread. 

Herbert Jones Over 4.5 Rebounds (-120)

Herbert Jones is among the NBA’s brightest unsung stars. He may not feature on many highlight reels or light up the stat sheet on any given night, but his energy, effort, basketball IQ and leadership keep his minutes and usage higher than most players of comparable talent and skill levels. 

In what is expected to be the Pelicans’ final game of the year, Jones looks a player to trust to leave it all on the court.

After averaging just over 30 minutes per game in the regular season, Jones has averaged just under 36 minutes per game in the three games of this series.

At 6 '7”, 206 pounds, Jones is a player asked to fill in and provide in Williamson’s absence, and his athleticism, size and length match up well with the Thunder’s interchangeable pieces.

Jones may not be relied upon as much for scoring, but he can spark his team with rebounding. So far, he has recorded seven rebounds, two rebounds and seven rebounds in these three games, and with a line of 4.5 rebounds tonight, he looks more than capable of covering that. 

Cason Wallace Over 4.5 Points (-110)

SGA, Jalen Williams, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will likely be the most popular player point props bet today - which is more than understandable. However, there looks to be some value in the lowest player points line offered - Cason Wallace scoring at least five.

Wallace may not be a household name yet, but he certainly could become one within the next couple of seasons. The 20-year-old rookie from Kentucky was the 10th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and after averaging 6.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists as a role player this regular season, Wallace’s advanced defensive chops, speed and efficiency have earned him sixth-man status in the playoffs.

Wallace has averaged 19 minutes these three games, contributing five points, two points and five points again. 

Like Jones with the Pelicans, Wallace isn’t asked to do much scoring for the Thunder, but with more playing time comes more opportunity. Coinciding with a Thunder cover, we like Wallace to clear a points line that he already has done twice this series. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans odds

OKC Thunder

-190 ML

NO Pelicans

+160 ML


OKC -5 

Total Points

O/U 205.5

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans player props

Player Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder)

O/U 27.5

Brandon Ingram (NO Pelicans)

O/U 21.5

Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder)

O/U 19.5

CJ McCollum (NO Pelicans)

O/U 19.5

Chet Holmgren (OKC Thunder)

O/U 15.5

Herbert Jones (NO Pelicans)

O/U 11.5

Read the latest NBA news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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