Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals takes place in Indianapolis on Wednesday as the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 34 points and eight assists, while Jalen Williams added 19 points and five assists as the Thunder evened the series at one game apiece with a dominant 123-106 victory at home on Sunday.

Closing out the Pacers is the key. The New York Knicks could not do it in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Oklahoma City failed to do it in Game 1, blowing a 15-point, fourth quarter lead in a 111-110 defeat.

The consensus seems to be that the Thunder have figured out the Pacers, and should have the rest of the series on lock, so naturally there will be another surprise or two going forward.

The Pacers are 6-2 at home this postseason, and Oklahoma City is 4-3 on the road. With the Game 2 win Sunday night, the Thunder improved to 5-0 coming off a loss in the playoffs. 

Indiana is currently 4-0 in the same situation, with the chance to improve on that record on Wednesday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 betting picks and predictions 

Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-110)

Although this feels like the perfect time for Indiana to give another magical postseason response, it also does appear that the Thunder unlocked something in Game 2.

They always say basketball is a game of runs, but for one of the first times in the postseason, Indiana could not make their last run count.

Sure, it was on the road, where the Pacers still got a critical split, but Oklahoma City has already dealt with that kind of adversity in the second round against the Denver Nuggets.

And SGA is being SGA. Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.4 points in the playoffs, has embraced his MVP status and run with it. He is averaging 36 points in the series and 36.5 points in his last four games overall. He is the one superstar in this series, and he is acting like it.

Williams is averaging 18 points in the Finals and 20.2 points in the playoffs while a healthy Chet Holmgren has made a world of difference. After playing in just 32 games in the regular season, Holmgren has competed in all 18 OKC playoff contests, averaging 15.8 points and 8.3 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Alex Caruso, who was traded from the Chicago Bulls ahead of the season, is providing the kind of veteran leadership and quality bench minutes indicative of championship teams. He had 20 points in the Game 2 win and is averaging 9.6 points in the playoffs.

All of that being said, the Thunder are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven road contests, and Indiana is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. But the Pacers lost by 22 points at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and by six to the Knicks at home in the Eastern Conference Finals. Oklahoma has that kind of a performance in them.

Look for Oklahoma City to win and cover the 5.5-point spread as favorites.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 points (-110)

Indiana is playing a great team game in the postseason. Six players are averaging in double figures, led by Pascal Siakam’s 20.6, with Obi Topping (8.8 ppg) and T.J. McConnell (8.6 ppg) not far behind, giving the Pacers eight regular contributors on a team averaging a little over 116 points per game in the postseason.

Tyrese Haliburton has rightfully received praise for his clutch performances, but five different Pacers have led the team in scoring in a game in the playoffs. They are doing a good job spreading the wealth, but that makes it hard to touch any of their over/under points props.

Not so much with Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s led the Thunder in 16-of-18 postseason contests, and has scored 34 or more eight times in 18 postseason games, including five of the past six. 

That extra half point does add some hesitation to this pick, but there is the belief that SGA sees an opportunity to take control of this series in Game 3 and he is going to take that on himself.

Look for the MVP to score more than 34.5 points.

Total over 228.5 points (-110)

This one should be tight. Oklahoma City has only totalled more than 228.5 points just six times in 18 games this postseason. However, Indiana has surpassed that number 11 times in 18 contests, and that includes six times in eight home games. 

And the two teams have played to the over in four of the last five times overall, as well as four of the last five times in Indianapolis.

This may come down to the last minute or two of regulation, or even an overtime period, but look for the two teams to total more than 228.5 points in Game 3.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 odds

OKC Thunder	-220 ML
IND Pacers	+180 ML
Spread	OKC -5.5
Total Points	O/U 228.5

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 player props

Player Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)	O/U 33.5
Jalen Williams (OKC)	O/U 20.5
Pascal Siakam (IND)	O/U 19.5
Tyrese Haliburton (IND)	O/U 17.5
Myles Turner (IND)	O/U 14.5
Chet Holmgren (OKC)	O/U 15.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.