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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Dallas Mavericks host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a crucial Game 6 on Saturday night.

The Mavs own a 3-2 series lead after dominating OKC on Wednesday, winning Game 5 104-92. Returning home, the Mavs are favored to win and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play Game 7 on Sunday for the other spot in the WCF. Will the Thunder or the Mavericks join their Western Conference counterparts in reaching Game 7, or will Dallas end the series here?

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 betting picks and predictions

Mavericks -4 (-105)

The Thunder took a decisive victory in Game 1 and managed to snatch a win in Game 4 in Dallas, thanks to MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's takeover performance and a second-half Mavericks meltdown.

Despite those wins, the Mavericks have largely dominated the series, controlling most of the last eight halves of basketball.

P.J. Washington's impressive scoring in Games 2-4 seemed crucial, but even with his limited 10-point contribution in Game 5 and Kyrie Irving's scoring decline, the Mavericks have stayed ahead due to stellar defense, rebounding, and a next-man-up mentality.

While Dallas boasts superstars like Luka Doncic and Irving, contributions from Derrick Jones Jr., Washington, Daniel Gafford, Derrick Lively, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Josh Green have been pivotal.

The Thunder, though possessing depth, have relied heavily on SGA, particularly with Jalen Williams having struggled recently. Their inexperience is showing, and rookies like Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, and playmaker Josh Giddey have found it hard to make an offensive impact.

Given the Mavericks' playoff experience, proven stars, tenacity on the glass, and reliable scoring options, it's tough to see them dropping Game 6 at home, potentially shifting the series back to OKC for Game 7.

Over 209.5 Total Points (-110)

The first two games of this series exceeded 209 points, but the last three fell short, with Games 4 and 5 featuring back-to-back 196-point games. Betting on an uptick of at least 14 points might seem risky, but trends can be misleading, especially with the Western Conference's top seed facing elimination.

While we trust the Mavs’ defense, Dallas is comfortable in higher-tempo, higher-scoring games. Expect the Thunder to make offensive adjustments in Game 6, aiming to support SGA and get others in a rhythm.

Both teams ranked in the NBA's top 10 for pace this season. Although Dallas has slowed down in the playoffs, the Thunder will likely push for a faster game in Game 6.

Josh Giddey, whose minutes have dropped due to poor three-point shooting, is expected to return to his normal minutes, enhancing his playmaking role and contributing to a higher-scoring game.

Jalen Williams Over 17.5 Points (-120)

Our player prop picks hedge the Mavericks -4 bet and support our game total over pick. Jalen Williams, SGA’s main support, exceeded 17 points in the first six playoff games but has fallen short recently. His scoring directly impacts the Thunder’s total output.

For the Thunder to force a Game 7 or compete in Dallas, Williams must step up.

Look for the Thunder to rely more on their starting five in Game 6, providing Williams with ample shooting opportunities. If he starts strong, he should easily surpass 18 points, given his season average of 19.1 points per game and 21.3 in the first playoff round.

Jaylin Williams Over 5.5 PTS + REB (+100)

The other Jaylin Williams on the Thunder isn’t a starter and has only played 10 minutes in the last two games. However, his presence is crucial.

In Game 4, his five second-half rebounds helped the Thunder mount a comeback when they were struggling on the glass.

Williams’ minutes have decreased despite his physicality and rebounding being vital against the athletic Mavericks frontcourt. In 17 minutes in Game 1, he tallied 11 points and nine rebounds, contributing to a 22-point Thunder victory.

Given his past performance, Williams is likely to be relied upon in Game 6. At even money, betting on him to secure six points and rebounds combined is a solid choice.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds

OKC Thunder

+150 ML

DAL Mavericks

-180 ML


DAL -4

Total Points

O/U 209.5

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 player props

Player Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder)

O/U 31.5

Luka Doncic (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 28.5

Kyrie Irving (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 19.5

Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder)

O/U 17.5

P.J. Washington (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 15.5

Chet Holmgren (OKC Thunder)

O/U 14.5

Read the latest NBA news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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