It’s a Western Conference Finals rematch on Wednesday night in Texas as the Minnesota Timberwolves (22-21) travel to the Lone Star state to take on the Dallas Mavericks (23-20), who have struggled without franchise superstar Luka Doncic.
Neither team has looked as dominant as last season, but there is still plenty of time left to turn things around before the playoffs.
Let’s preview this exciting matchup with a pick against the spread and two player props.
There are a lot of new faces in the Timberwolves starting lineup this season, including Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, who joined the team as part of the Karl-Anthony Towns trade that sent him to New York.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, DiVincenzo is out for a while with a toe injury and Randle hasn’t formed great chemistry with either Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert. It’s caused the Timberwolves to barely be above .500 as February approaches.
Minnesota hasn’t been able to reach a consistent level yet as they are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and 10-10 at home this season. However, they have a great chance to break a two-game losing streak as they travel to Dallas.
Luka Doncic suffered a calf strain on Christmas and hasn’t been able to return to the court since. In the meantime, the Mavericks have been struggling without their superstar. They have lost seven of their last 10 games and a lot of responsibility has fallen onto the shoulders of Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, and P.J. Washington.
Offseason acquisition Klay Thompson was supposed to make an immediate impact in the lineup, but his shooting numbers are down and he’s averaging just 13 points per game on 38 percent three-point shooting.
The other problem that Dallas deals with is their thin bench. Naji Marshall is their best reserve player and he’s been playing 20 to 30 minutes per game lately.
Doncic’s absence has caused the Mavericks to drop to 25th in offensive rating in the last 10 games. Dallas also ranks 24th in true shooting percentage and 25th in effective field goal percentage in that span as well.
If Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards can limit the Mavericks from the perimeter, it’s going to be difficult for Dallas to get any sort of rhythm on offense. Take the Wolves at such a small spread.
Kyrie Irving has been able to shine in Doncic’s absence. In the six games without the Slovenian, Irving has scored 20, 46, 16, 11, 25, and 33 points. He has taken at least 18 shots in five of those games and has become the clear scoring threat in the Mavericks offense.
Irving has been the primary reason for keeping the Mavericks from a complete downfall and he’s going to have to continue that on Wednesday since Washington and Gafford will be heavily defended by Randle and Gobert.
The Timberwolves defend the paint well with Jaden McDaniels, Randle, and Gobert in the post. However, they tend to struggle defending the perimeter and mid-range and that’s where Irving is at his best.
He’s attempted at least eight three-pointers in four of the six games without Doncic. He’s going to be taking the majority of the shots for Dallas, so the Over on his points total seems like the best option.
Dallas’ primary rebounders are Gafford and Marshall. With that said, Marshall doesn’t even start, which gives the Mavs an immediate disadvantage on the glass to start the game.
That’s going to give the Minnesota bigs plenty of early opportunities for rebounds. Gobert will likely be matched up on Gafford which means Randle should be guarded by Washington, who is a smaller forward who only averages seven rebounds a game.
Randle has been dominant on the boards recently as he’s recorded 10, 8, 10, 6, 7, 14, and 11 rebounds in the last seven games. With that in mind and knowing he will likely be matched up against a smaller defender, he has plenty of value on his rebounding prop.
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Minnesota Timberwolves | -150 ML |
Dallas Mavericks | +125 ML |
Spread | MIN Timberwolves -3.0 |
Total Points | O/U 216.5 |
Anthony Edwards (MIN Timberwolves) | O/U 26.5 |
Kyrie Irving (DAL Mavericks) | O/U 26.5 |
Julius Randle (MIN Timberwolves) | O/U 19.5 |
P.J. Washington (DAL Mavericks) | O/U 14.5 |
Naz Reid (MIN Timberwolves) | O/U 14.5 |
Klay Thompson (DAL Mavericks) | O/U 12.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.