Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The NBA Cup Final will tip-off on Tuesday night in Las Vegas as the Milwaukee Bucks face the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The tournament began in early November and there were some memorable moments in the group stage and knockout round, but now there is only one team from each conference left.

The Bucks conquered the Eastern Conference, while the Thunder beat out the rest of the Western Conference to make it to the NBA Cup Final.

Oddsmakers have chosen the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites, so let’s preview and get into our expert’s best bets for this exciting matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder betting picks and predictions

Thunder -4.5 (-110)

It wasn’t too surprising to see the Thunder listed as small favorites in the final. Oklahoma City has looked dominant for the first two months of the season as they hold a 20-5 record coming into Tuesday’s game.

It’s even more impressive considering Chet Holmgren has been sidelined for the last several weeks with an injury. His absence has given offseason acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein the chance to shine in the starting five and he’s averaging over 12 points and 12 rebounds through 10 games.

He’s been the perfect fix to Oklahoma City’s biggest problem: paint defense. Last season, Holmgren struggled to defend strong forwards and he wasn’t the greatest rim protector.

The Thunder went out and got Hartenstein to eliminate that weakness and that has led to their defense developing into the best unit in the league.

OKC ranks first in defensive rating and the team's play on that end has been the primary reason for its success in this tournament. In the NBA Cup, the Thunder have held opponents to 83, 110, 93, 106, 104, and 96 points.

The last few weeks have been nothing short of impressive for the Bucks. Milwaukee won just two of their first 10 games and the duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard did not look good.

Fortunately for the Bucks, none of those early games were a part of the NBA Cup. Once the tournament started, they looked like a completely different team.

Milwaukee swept the group stage against Raptors, Pacers, Heat, and Pistons and then beat the Magic in the quarterfinals which led them to a matchup against the Hawks in the semifinals.

The Bucks beat the Hawks 110-102 on Saturday afternoon behind a 32-point effort from Giannis.

However, the Thunder will be their hardest test yet. The Milwaukee offense relies too much on Giannis and Lillard, which can be a weakness sometimes.

If Hartenstein can limit the Greek Freak's impact in the paint and Lu Dort locks up Lillard on the perimeter, it’s going to be difficult for the Bucks to find offense, so back the Thunder by the small spread.

Under 214.0 total points (-110)

The Under has been an extremely profitable spot for Bucks and Thunder games this season. Each team has played 25 games and the Under is 14-11 for both squads.

Only the Clippers and Hornets have had the under win at a higher percentage this season. That demonstrates how each team prioritizes defense compared to offense - especially the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has allowed just 103.5 points per game which is the fewest in the NBA. A big reason for that is the addition of Hartenstein in the paint to protect the rim, but also Dort, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso on the perimeter.

The game plan against the Bucks will be simple - keep Hartenstein on Antetokounmpo and have Dort pick up Lillard at half court and give no space on the perimeter. That will force Taurean Prince, Brook Lopez, and Andre Jackson Jr. into bigger roles in offense.

The Bucks don’t have as strong of a defense as the Thunder, but it’s still a respectable unit. Milwaukee comes into this matchup ranked 13th in defensive rating and sixth in defensive rebounding percentage.

Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis have been solid rim protectors that can also stretch the floor and guard the perimeter if needed. With that said, Milwaukee’s biggest problem will be limiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The early MVP candidate is averaging over 30 points per game on over 50 percent shooting from the floor. He's also making a big impact defensively, averaging 2.7 steals in six NBA Cup games, the eight-most in tournament play.

Oddsmakers have set this total very low, but it still might not be low enough, so take the Under in the NBA Cup Final.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds

Milwaukee Bucks	+158 ML
Oklahoma City Thunder	-188 ML
Spread	OKC Thunder -4.5
Total Points	O/U 214

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder player props

Player Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder)	O/U 31.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL Bucks)	O/U 29.5
Damian Lillard (MIL Bucks)	O/U 22.5
Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder)	O/U 21.5
Bobby Portis (MIL Bucks)	O/U 11.5
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC Thunder)	O/U 11.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.