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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Dallas Mavericks enter Thursday night on a three-game skid, while the visiting Miami Heat have won seven of their last eight.

The Mavericks have slipped into eighth in the Western Conference, meaning they are now in a play-in spot as opposed to a playoff berth, with Jason Kidd’s side struggling for consistency recently, going 5-5 over their last 10 games. 

The Heat, meanwhile, are sixth in the East and clinging on to a playoff spot just ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and they will be keen to cement their place in the top six sooner rather than later, so expect Erik Spoelstra’s side to give a good account of themselves at the American Airlines Center in Texas

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks betting picks and predictions

Miami Heat +5 (-110)

Miami are the in-form side going into this match, with their only loss in eight coming in Denver against the reigning champions, and they should have more than enough to at least cover the spread in Dallas, or possibly even win. 

The Mavericks defense is a real worry. They have allowed at least 120 points in each of their last six games and while Luka Doncic is doing his best to help outscore opponents and cover for their defensive frailties - averaging 34.8 points in his last 10 games - it still is not enough and they have lost five of the six games in that run. 

Doncic is a doubt for this match and even if he is fit, his ability to score so freely will be limited somewhat by Jimmy Butler, who is one of the NBA’s best defenders. 

Home advantage may help the Mavericks a bit, but they are just 5-5 in their last 10 at the American Airlines Center while the Heat are 6-4 on the road in their last 10 away games. Take Spoelstra’s side to at least cover the spread in Texas. 

Under 229.5 points (-110)

With Doncic potentially out, the Mavericks’ offense becomes immediately less potent. Kyrie Irving is averaging 27.2 points per game in his last 10 appearances, but he will find himself struggling if he is up against Butler should ‘Jimmy Buckets’ not have Doncic to defend too. 

The Heat’s games are notoriously low-scoring, with just two of their last 10 games overall and the same number of their last 10 home matches seeing 229 points or more. 

None of the last three meetings between this pair have seen over 231 points and, with key injuries in both camps and Doncic’s potential absence, a game with less than that total should be expected on Thursday. 

Kyrie Irving 5+ assists (+140)

Miami made an offer for Irving at the 2023 trade deadline, which was ultimately rejected by the Brooklyn Nets in favour of the Mavericks’ proposal, and the eight-time All-Star could show the Heat exactly what they missed out on at the American Airlines Center. 

Irving has always performed well against the Heat, especially in a playmaking sense, averaging 5.0 assists per game when facing Miami across his career. 

He is averaging just 3.9 assists in his last 10 games but his season average is 5.0 and that goes up to 5.1 when playing in Dallas, suggesting he could enjoy a big night with the ball against Miami. 

Doncic is unsurprisingly the Mavericks’ assist leader this term, averaging 9.8 a game, but with the Slovenian star a doubt for this match, Irving could be Dallas’ go to man on Thursday night, suggesting he may go past his over 3.5 assist line and notch at least five against the Heat. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks odds

MIA Heat

+170 ML

DAL Mavericks

-205 ML


DAL -5


O/U 229.5

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks player props

Player Points

Luka Doncic

O/U 33.5

Kyrie Irving

O/U 25.5

Jimmy Butler

O/U 22.5

Bam Adebayo

O/U 19.5

Duncan Robinson

O/U 16.5

Duncan Robinson

O/U 14.5

PJ Washington

O/U 12.5

Josh Green

O/U 7.5

Read Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks: How to watch, TV Channel, streaming start time, injury report and stats on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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