The Miami Heat's decision to suspend Jimmy Butler for the second time this season has dominated the pregame coverage of their trip to Wisconsin to face the Milwaukee Bucks, with the wantaway All-Star refusing to join his team on the flight.
That off-court distraction will do nothing to help Erik Spoelstra's side, who were already struggling on it. The Heat have a modest 21-21 record this term, and even had Butler been available, a trip to Milwaukee to face the 24-17 Bucks was always going to be a tough task.
Doc Rivers' team sits in fourth in the Eastern Conference and they enter this clash as strong favorites, a tag they can easily justify.
While a seven-point spread may seem steep at first glance, the Milwaukee Bucks are in good form and can see off the faltering Heat by a healthy margin on Thursday.
The Bucks are 7-3 over their last 10 games, impressively beating the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic in that run, while they have also reserved their best performances for games in front of their own fans, boasting a strong 16-7 record in Milwaukee.
The Heat, meanwhile, have won just four of their last 10 games and it is hard to believe they can keep it close at the Fiserv Forum, where they have lost in seven of their last eight visits.
Miami did keep things close when losing the first head-to-head of the season 106-103, but they had home advantage and the services of Butler. He top-scored with 23 points for the Heat in that clash, but that is a luxury they do not possess on Thursday.
Due to the teams' respective form and place in the Eastern Conference standings, the Bucks are -270 moneyline favorites. That price is not worth backing. Instead, it could pay to stretch the odds by backing Milwaukee on the spread.
The Bucks have covered a -7.0 line in seven of their last 10 home games, including each of the last five. On the other hand, the Heat have failed to cover a +7.0 spread in four of their previous five matches including twice in a row on the road.
Back the Bucks to land a comfortable victory.
It took some time for Damian Lillard to settle in Milwaukee following his blockbuster move in 2023, but the legendary point guard is beginning to prove his worth to the Wisconsin-based franchise, and he has been in great form lately.
Lillard has scored 25 or more points in six of his last eight games, the exceptions seeing him narrowly miss that line when putting up 22 points at the New York Knicks and then 24 against the Sacramento Kings. He has cleared 24.5 points in each of his last three outings.
Last Thursday saw the Bucks star enjoy a stunning 30-point game against the Orlando Magic, a side who boast the NBA's fourth-best defensive rating and give up just 107.8 points per game, and it would be no surprise to see him dominate in a similar fashion against Miami.
Lillard led the scoring in the teams' November meeting, notching a mammoth 37 points as he made an impressive eight of his 13 three-point attempts. He should shine against the Heat once again.
With Butler absent again, Spoelstra will be expecting his other key players, including Bam Adebayo, to step up.
The Heat center has carved out a career as one of the NBA's best defenders, but his offensive play has come under scrutiny over the years and he will be expected to get to the basket more frequently as Miami look for new ways to score without Butler.
However, if Adebayo does look to take the offensive mantle in Milwaukee, there is no guarantee that it will pay off, as he must overcome Brook Lopez if he is to enjoy a high points tally at the Fiserv Forum.
Lopez may be a veteran these days, but he remains an excellent defender and he has been enjoying his time in the paint recently, notching nine blocks across his last three games, including five against the Magic.
Splash Mountain has registered at least two blocks in six of his last eight games and could extend that run to seven in nine by dominating Adebayo on Thursday.
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Miami Heat | +220 ML |
Milwaukee Bucks | -270 ML |
Spread | MIL Bucks -7.0 |
Total Points | O/U 225.0 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL Bucks) | O/U 29.5 |
Damian Lillard (MIL Bucks) | O/U 24.5 |
Tyler Herro (MIA Heat) | O/U 23.5 |
Kel’el Ware (MIA Heat) | O/U 15.5 |
Bam Adebayo (MIA Heat) | O/U 14.5 |
Khris Middleton (MIL Bucks) | O/U 12.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.