Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The remaining Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament game sees the Miami Heat visit the Atlanta Hawks with the No. 8 seed and a playoff series against the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers on the line.

While the Hawks have the home-court advantage and an extra day of rest, the Heat enter this one with serious momentum, and the recent trends point to Miami as the team better equipped to take care of business.

The Heat blasted the Bulls 109-90 in Chicago to reach this elimination game, locking down one of the NBA’s hottest teams while flashing impressive offensive upside. Tyler Herro erupted for 38 points, Bam Adebayo controlled the paint with a double-double, and midseason additions like Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell delivered clutch support.

Miami held Chicago to just 27 percent from deep and under 40 percent shooting overall, an ideal tune-up before facing an Atlanta team that just got blown out 120-95 by the Magic.

The Hawks were thoroughly outplayed by Orlando, getting torched by Cole Anthony and Anthony Black off the Magic bench while shooting a brutal 19 percent from deep. While Trae Young scored 28 in that game thanks to 11 free throws, the supporting cast looked shaky.

With key injuries and defensive inconsistencies still lingering, Atlanta will need more than home court to knock out a suddenly clicking Heat squad.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks betting picks and predictions

Miami Heat +1.0 (-115)

Despite finishing the regular season at 37-45, the Heat have found their rhythm when it matters most.

Their performance in Chicago was a total team effort, but it was Herro’s command of the offense that stood out. He’s averaged 24.8 points on the road this season and plays with the poise of a seasoned star. Add to that Bam Adebayo’s recent form and a rising bench, and Miami suddenly looks dangerous.

The Hawks, meanwhile, come in after a flat effort in Orlando, where they allowed 120 points despite holding Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner under 20 each. Their lapses are hard to ignore, especially when considering their 21st-ranked defense since the All-Star break. 

These teams split the regular season series 2-2, with each team winning both home games. But there’s a massive caveat – the Hawks had Jalen Johnson (now out for the year) and DeAndre Hunter (traded) combine for 54 points and 18 rebounds in their first win, and got Herro on one of his worst nights of the season in the second win (4/19 shooting and 0/9 from three). 

Since then, the Heat have adjusted, and in the two most recent matchups in Miami, they not only won both, but lit up Atlanta from deep. Miami shot over 54 percent from three in both games, held Trae Young under 20 points both times, and kept the rest of his team in check.

It's not entirely surprising the Heat shot that well from deep against Atlanta in the last two meetings considering the Heat rank third in the NBA over the last 15 games in three-point percentage, shooting above 40 percent from deep.

The Hawks have also allowed a fair amount of three-pointers all year, and many of them are good looks, as they rank 28th in the NBA in opponent 3PT%, allowing teams to shoot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc.  

On the other end of the floor, the Hawks rely heavily on transition, interior scoring and getting to the foul line to keep pace. However, the Heat are built to stop that offensive philosophy. The Heat’s slower tempo – 27th in pace – could frustrate the Hawks, who are sixth in that category.

Miami just executed this game plan to perfection in Chicago against the league’s fastest team. If the Heat replicate that here, it’s hard to see Atlanta generating enough stops or buckets to keep up. 

The Heat rank eighth in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating over their last 15 games and just dominated on the road. Between Herro, Adebayo, Wiggins, Mitchell and Duncan Robinson, the Heat have a lot of pieces that can explode for 20+ or even 30+ points.

In a pick 'em, we are siding with the Heat to cover +1.0 and win outright on the road, locking in a date with the Cavaliers on Sunday in Cleveland. 

Under 218.5 Total Points (-110)

The Under is another solid play here. While Atlanta ranks sixth in offensive rating post-All-Star break, the Heat are not a fast-paced, run-and-gun team.

Miami is methodical, smart and excellent at limiting transition damage. They rank second in fewest free throw attempts allowed, seventh in preventing points off turnovers, sixth in limiting second-chance points and 14th in limiting points in the paint.

As mentioned, the Heat’s defensive discipline plays perfectly against Atlanta’s preferred style – fast breaks, paint scoring and high free-throw volume. The Heat are also the third-best defensive rebounding team, which neutralizes Atlanta’s strength on the offensive glass. And while the Hawks are loaded with streaky scorers, only Trae Young is a consistent 25+ point threat.

The Heat win with defense and timely shooting. Combine Miami’s pace control with Atlanta’s inconsistencies, and the total staying Under 218.5 looks like the right choice.

Tyler Herro Over 30.5 Points + Assists (-115)

Tyler Herro is on a heater. The Miami guard has been sensational lately and has hit this line in eight of his last 11 games.

Against Atlanta this season, Herro has cleared this combo line three out of four times, including a 40-point + assist performance in their most recent matchup on March 27. In that game, he dropped 36 points on 13/17 shooting while adding four assists.

What makes Herro such a great bet here is his versatility. He’s not just scoring in isolation, he’s getting buckets from off-ball movement, spot-ups and floaters. His playmaking has also taken a leap, as seen with his 10 assists in two of the earlier games vs. Atlanta.

The Hawks’ defense isn’t equipped to contain him, especially since they allow opponents to shoot nearly 38 percent from three, and Herro is a sniper.

On the road, Herro has averaged 24.8 points per game, and with the game expected to be tight, the ball will be in his hands even more. He’s the Heat’s closer, primary shooter and now a steady facilitator. Against this Hawks team, he should feast again.

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Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks odds

Miami Heat	-110 ML
Atlanta Hawks	-110 ML
Spread	ATL Hawks -1.0
Total Points	O/U 218.5

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks player props

Player Points

Trae Young (ATL Hawks)	O/U 27.5
Tyler Herro (MIA Heat)	O/U 25.5
Bam Adebayo (MIA Heat)	O/U 19.5
Andrew Wiggins (MIA Heat)	O/U 18.5
Onyeka Okongwu (ATL Hawks)	O/U 14.5
Dyson Daniels (ATL Hawks)	O/U 13.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.