Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Western Conference 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament begins on Tuesday night when the Golden State Warriors host the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 7 seed in the playoffs.

Golden State could have avoided this play-in situation but fell to the Los Angeles Clippers in overtime on Sunday, finishing the regular season with a 48-34 record to end the campaign one game behind the No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves.

Memphis also comes in at 48-34 but is the lower seed and therefore must go on the road due to losing the head-to-head season series against the Warriors 3-1.

With tipoff set for 10:00 PM ET on TNT, it’s time to break down the matchup and discuss the best bets to make.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors betting picks and predictions

Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 (-110)

To say that Sunday did not go well for Golden State would be a gross understatement. Head coach Steve Kerr’s club would have locked up an automatic spot in the playoffs with a victory, but it threw that chance away by losing to the Clippers.

Moreover, Jimmy Butler sustained a quad contusion during the defeat. The injury may not sideline Butler from Tuesday’s contest, but it certainly doesn’t help when Stephen Curry is already banged up with a thumb injury.

Memphis lost three consecutive contests after former head coach Taylor Jenkins got fired in March, but it proceeded to win four of its next six under interim Tuomas Iisalo.

Although Ja Morant is once again making news with his shenanigans to a greater extent than his play, he is in spectacular form right now. Morant (23.2 ppg) has exceeded his season scoring average in 13 of the last 15 outings.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are also on a roll, so the Grizzlies are getting consistent production from their best players.

The Warriors might be able to take care of business in front of their home crowd, but it’s hard to justify giving 6.5 points to the Grizzlies.

Over 229.5 Total Points (-110)

These two teams squared off four times during the regular season and those contests produced 241, 237, 259 and 241 points.

In other words, there’s no need to overthink this one; sticking with the trends and backing the Over with Tuesday’s total set at a modest 229.5 is the way to go.

Memphis leads the entire NBA in pace of play, averaging 106.8 possessions per game. That is a big reason why the Grizz led the Western Conference with 121.7 ppg.

They have scored at least 124 points in three of their last four games, while Golden State has put up at least 118 points in six of its last nine.

Moreover, Curry and Butler almost always seem to pick up the pace when playoff basketball arrives.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-130)

This is not a big number for Jackson, who averaged 22.2 points per game during the regular season.

The Michigan State product has reached the 20-point mark in six of his last nine outings, so he heads into this play-in showdown with plenty of confidence.

It should be noted that this is obviously the biggest game of the year to date, so you have to figure that Jackson - and all of the best players on each team - will log a ton of minutes on Tuesday night.

The matchup with Golden State has been a favorable one for JJJ so far in 2024/25. He averaged 23.5 ppg in the four head-to-head meetings and delivered at least 22 points on three of those four occasions.

Perhaps even more encouraging is that Jackson did his damage despite shooting a horrendous 3/18 from three-point range in four appearances against the Warriors. In other words, he got a lot of easy buckets much closer to the rim - an action that figures to be repeated on Tuesday.

If the former No. 4 overall pick can shoot even close to his average (37.5 percent from three-point range) at the perimeter, he should be in line for a huge night.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors odds

Memphis Grizzlies	-290 ML
Golden State Warriors	+235 ML
Spread	GS Warriors -6.5
Total Points	O/U 229.5

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors player props

Player Points

Ja Morant (MEM Grizzlies)	O/U 27.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM Grizzlies)	O/U 19.5
Desmond Bane (MEM Grizzlies)	O/U 19.5
Stephen Curry (GS Warriors)	O/U 28.5
Jimmy Butler (GS Warriors)	O/U 21.5
Brandin Podziemski (GS Warriors)	O/U 16.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.