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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs brings us Game 6 between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks tonight, and it's a win-or-go-home scenario for LA.

With a 3-2 series lead, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and co. look to advance to the second round in front of their home crowd, but the road team has now won three of the five games in this series.

Do the Clippers force Game 7, or will the Mavs seal the deal? Read below to see our experts’ picks and predictions for this game.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 betting picks and predictions 

Over 208 Total Points (-110)

It’s no secret that game totals in the NBA playoffs tend to be lower than in the regular season because defensive intensity ratchets up significantly, and through the first three games of this series, these squads failed to eclipse tonight’s Total of 208 points.

Still, there is plenty of reason to support the team's surpassing tonight’s low Total. 

Both teams finished in the bottom half of the NBA this year in defensive rating, and without Kawhi Leonard's presence, length and versatility on defense, the Clippers – owners of the league’s second-oldest roster – began to wear thin on the defensive end in Games 4 and 5.

Despite going 1-1, the Mavericks tallied their highest point totals in the last two games, contributing to game totals of 227 and 216. 

Mavericks star Luka Doncic is coming off his best performance of the series in a 30-point dismantling of LA, and with his confidence riding high looking to close out the series at home, he should be able to ignite the explosively fast-paced, three-point-happy Mavericks offense yet again.

With Doncic playing like his usual efficient self, the Clippers will be forced into a higher-tempo game, and we are counting on a bounceback from James Harden in the scoring department. 

Even taking playoff defensive effort into account, for two offenses that finished top 10 in offensive rating and combined to average 25.5 more points per game than tonight’s Total, and for two defenses combining to average 19.4 more points allowed over tonight's Total, we have no problem riding with the season-long data and the recent uptick in points in this series.

Take Over 208 Total Points.

Los Angeles Clippers +8.0 (-110)

After the Mavericks won Games 2 and 3, and with Leonard ruled out heading into Game 4 in Dallas, it felt like the Mavericks were in prime position to close the series winning four in a row.

But even with a 40-point performance from Irving and a triple-double from Doncic in Game 4, the Clippers held off what would have been a historic comeback and defied a 7.5-point underdog spread, winning 116-111.  

Well, we have an eerily similar situation heading into Game 6. The momentum favors the Mavericks at home and the point spread is all but the same.

It can be easy to forget the Clippers are the higher seed in this series, and when analyzing each roster, the Clippers own a depth and makeup advantage – but they need their stars to match the production of Dallas’ stars. 

While Paul George and James Harden have shaky playoff history at best, the duo did match Irving and Doncic in Game 4, combining for 66 points, 15 assists and 12 rebounds.

It will be difficult to repeat a combined 11-of-15 three-point shooting night, but aggressive play from Harden and George will keep tonight’s game closer than eight points.

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Threes Made (-125)

MVP candidate Luka Doncic established a career-high in points per game this season (33.9), in large part thanks to career-best marks from beyond the arc.

Despite taking more threes per game this season (10.6) than ever before, Doncic connected on a career-best 38.2 percent, averaging over four made threes per game. 

After combining to shoot 9-of-26 from three-point land in the first two games of this series (35%), Doncic has made just 6-of-31 in the last three games. In total, Doncic is shooting 26.3% from deep this series.

The Clippers’ coverage deserves credit, but there have also been looks Doncic usually sinks that are not going down right now. 

The last three-game stretch Doncic suffered like this from deep was back in mid-January. He snapped out of the slide by turning up his attempts, splashing four three-pointers to break the slump and then eight the following game.

With the opportunity to advance to the second round in front of the home crowd, look for a return to form from three for Doncic. 

James Harden Over 19.5 Points (-130)

While the Clippers prefer a slower pace, James Harden must match the energy of Doncic and the Mavericks. He is counted on to lead the LA offense not with his playmaking but with his scoring, just as he did with a 33-point performance in the Clippers' 116-111 win in Dallas in Game 4. 

In Game 5, the Clippers’ opening strategy was admirable: Exploit the size advantage and feed Ivica Zubac for early buckets down low, opening up the offense from the inside.

The problem here was Harden tried to play too much point guard and was passive when looking to score. By the time the Clippers needed him to get going in the second half, he had no rhythm. 

LA can still look to get Zubac involved early while giving Harden the confidence to get going out of the gate. Harden only scored seven points in Game 5, but his series average still sits at 22.2.

We are confident Harden looks for his shot plenty in the first quarter and returns to the scoring production he posted in the first four games, easily clearing 19.5 points.   

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds 

Los Angeles Clippers

+270 ML

Dallas Mavericks

-340 ML


Dallas Mavericks -8.0 

Total Points

O/U 208

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 player props

Player Points

Luka Doncic (Mavericks)

O/U 33.5

Paul George (Clippers)

O/U 24.5

Kyrie Irving (Mavericks)

O/U 24.5

James Harden (Clippers)

O/U 19.5

Ivica Zubac (Clippers)

O/U 13.5

PJ Washington (Mavericks)

O/U 10.5

Read the latest NBA news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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