Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: NBA Finals Picks and Predictions

The NBA's parity era continues with the 2025 Finals, as the league prepares to crown a seventh champion in as many seasons.

The open nature of the league is clear in the two conference champions, with the Indiana Pacers chasing their first-ever NBA championship 25 years after their last trip to the Finals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are back at this stage for the first time since 2012. Their only title came in 1979 as the Seattle SuperSonics, 29 years before their relocation to Oklahoma. 

The Thunder followed up a 68-win regular season by sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, before eliminating the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets in seven. They were able to toy with the Minnesota Timberwolves, winning in five without ever really looking to be in danger.

The Thunder’s comfortable win over Minnesota gave them a rest advantage, with the Pacers going to six games against the New York Knicks. Indiana has toppled the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers to get this far, but they’re clearly in line for their biggest test yet.

Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series betting picks and predictions

Series Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (-130)

The nature of the NBA playoffs means there’s little time to credit the Pacers for a great run. Even before their closeout game with the Knicks, Indiana was being labelled as huge underdogs against this rampant Thunder team.

That’s also partly due to the disjointed nature of the current NBA, as the Western Conference is a much tougher prospect than the East.

Last season, the scrap to get out of the West left the Dallas Mavericks brittle and bruised in their showdown with a Boston side that breezed through the East. This time around, the Finals are being approached as a procession, with the Thunder seemingly taking out their biggest rivals in the second round.

The Thunder’s regular season numbers back up the East/West gulf. They were 29-1 against the opposing conference this season, with that one loss coming in a tight game away to Cleveland.

OKC won 120-114 in Indiana without Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso. They followed that up with a 132-111 home win.

We haven’t seen a Game 7 in the Finals since 2016, while the previous two have finished 4-1. Despite the Pacers’ qualities, it’s hard to see this series dragging on too long.

This is an awful matchup for Indiana, as this is the acid test of their remarkable ability to play with pace without turning the ball over. OKC can match their depth and their double big lineups, while the Thunder have Lu Dort and Caruso as point of attack defenders against Tyrese Haliburton.

This just seems like too big of a mismatch, so back OKC to win within five games. 

Series Correct Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0 (+300)

The Pacers have won their first three series openers in this postseason, so we’ve yet to truly see them trail. Last year their surprise run to the Eastern Conference finals came apart against the Boston Celtics, resulting in one of the most competitive sweeps in recent memory.

The Pacers deserved to win Game 1 in TD Garden, but after failing to convert their late lead, they exited without winning a game. OKC’s range of talents suggests Indiana won’t have the execution to get over the line, so OKC are backed to win this in four.

Most Threes Made in Series: Luguentz Dort (+500)

Indiana has improved defensively in 2025, but a key part of that has been their ability to hide Haliburton on that side of the court. They tend to put him on Dort when they matchup with the Thunder, so the Canadian is a real standout at +500 to record the most threes.

Dort led the sides with six three-pointers from seven attempts in their last meeting, while he leads the Thunder with 1.9 made threes per game in this postseason.

Dort’s defensive ability should impact Haliburton, who is the favorite in this market. At the other end, Dort can sink some crucial corner threes to help his side to victory.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series odds

Indiana Pacers	+500
Oklahoma City Thunder	-700

Read a full breakdown of Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Finals odds on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.