Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Series Picks and Predictions

To the surprise of many, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the reigning champion Boston Celtics are out before the conference finals, leaving the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks as the final two in the East, with nobody giving these teams a chance in the semifinals.

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off Wednesday, May 21 at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks will try to ride their raucous home-court advantage and momentum into an NBA Finals berth for the first time since 1999.

The Knicks are fresh off a 119-81 blowout of the Celtics in Game 6, a statement performance that featured a triple-double from Josh Hart and 21+ points from all five starters. Jalen Brunson continues to assert himself as a playoff alpha, while Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have all gone above and beyond their roles. 

Meanwhile, the Pacers have benefited from a week of rest after closing out Cleveland in five games. Tyrese Haliburton’s historic crunch-time scoring, Pascal Siakam’s steady presence, Andrew Nembhard’s emergence and the Pacers deep bench have fueled Indiana’s surprise run, but the question remains: Can the Pacers’ overachieving offense hold against a gritty Knicks starting five and MSG pressure?

This series offers a classic contrast in styles – fast-paced offense versus grinding halfcourt execution, and bettors can expect a tightly contested series between two well-coached, hungry teams. Here are our best bets and predictions for the Pacers vs. Knicks series.

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks series betting picks and predictions

Series Correct Score: New York Knicks 4-2 (+450)

The best value play on the board may be a 4-2 Knicks series win at +450. New York’s defense, toughness and offensive rebounding edge, plus the MSG crowd, make them the favorite, but Indiana’s offensive firepower and deeper bench could help push this series to six games before the Knicks close it out.

New York’s identity this postseason has been defined by ball control, physicality and big-game production from Brunson. Though he’s gone under his points prop in the last two games, he’s been an aggressive initiator to start every series. In Game 1s against both Boston and Detroit, Brunson attempted 50 total shots and 17 free throws. He also scored 26 and 33 points in two of three regular season games vs. Indiana.

The Knicks are simply the more complete playoff team and possess more starpower. While Haliburton has made the players who voted him most overrated look foolish, and the rest of the Pacers have proved a cohesive unit may be more effective than a couple of stars, the Knicks don’t just have a star or two – they have an all-star level starting five. Karl-Anthony Towns, in particular, could be a matchup nightmare for Indiana, especially since he torched them in the regular season for over 30 points per game.

The Pacers may have maxed out their shooting potential. Their 58.3% effective field goal percentage through the first two rounds would be the highest in NBA postseason history. Metrics suggest regression is coming. Nembhard and Nesmith are unlikely to keep hitting at 50% from deep, and while Siakam’s shooting has improved, the Pacers don’t have a reliable counter if their shooting cools off.

Indiana’s bench could help them secure a game or two, especially early. But New York’s ability to dominate the glass and control tempo should eventually wear down the Pacers and could result in a six-game Knicks victory.

Series Total Games: Over 6.5 Games (+190)

At +190, there’s plenty of value in this series to go the distance, and this play serves as a hedge for the Knicks to win in 6. 

Indiana has been one of the best offenses in the postseason, especially in transition off live rebounds (139.2 offensive rating) and in the halfcourt (108.5). They’re capable of quick scoring bursts and thrive in high-possession games. They also rank second in playoff offensive efficiency (119.5) and lead all playoff teams in non-garbage time eFG% (59.1%). 

Even if the Knicks eventually figure them out, Indiana’s ability to start fast is real. They’ve stolen three road games in Cleveland and crushed the Bucks by 26 in Milwaukee in Round 1. With a week of rest, they’re live to take one of the first two games at MSG, which would almost guarantee this series goes at least six.

The Knicks’ offense has also shown vulnerabilities when Brunson struggles or gets blitzed. And while New York grabs an elite 31% of their own misses, depth could become an issue with the heavy minutes their starters are logging. If Indiana can force pace and keep games close late, they’ll steal a few.

Ultimately, the Knicks are favored for good reason. But Indiana’s explosive scoring, pace and resilience could force a long series. Over 6.5 games is a smart hedge with an enticing return.

Correct Score After Game 3: Pacers 2-1 (+190)

Here’s where we see the potential for Indiana’s magical run to extend just a little longer. Despite being underdogs, the Pacers have a golden opportunity to jump ahead early in this series, and at +190, there’s strong value on them leading 2-1 after three games.

New York is riding a high after dismantling Boston, but the physical toll on their starters can’t be ignored. Indiana, meanwhile, is well-rested and has shown it can strike quickly in hostile environments. The Knicks have already lost three times at home this postseason, and Indiana’s confidence, rested legs and depth heading into this series give them a real shot to take Game 1 as 4.5-point underdogs.

Game 1 is the swing. If Indiana wins that opener, they’re set up to take a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4. The Pacers are 4-1 at home in the playoffs and should thrive early in the series when the Knicks are still adjusting to the Pacers’ style of play. Remember, these teams haven’t met since February 11. If New York doesn’t set the tone immediately, Indiana could jump ahead before the Knicks wear them down later.

We see a scenario in which Indiana steals Game 1 at MSG, drops Game 2, then takes Game 3 in Indianapolis. That would set up a pivotal Game 4 where the Knicks start to reclaim control. The +190 price on a 2-1 Pacers start is a calculated risk with strong supporting trends.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks series odds

Indiana Pacers	+135
New York Knicks	-160

Read a full breakdown of the Knicks vs. Pacers series markets and odds on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.