Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 4: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Indiana Pacers travel to the Fiserv Forum to take on Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4 on Sunday with tip-off at 9:30 PM ET, airing on TNT/Max as the final game of a packed four-game Sunday playoff slate.

The Pacers currently lead the series 2-1 after the first three matchups went as expected between these Eastern Conference 4 and 5 seeds: strong home performances, struggles on the road.

The Pacers dominated Games 1 and 2 in Indiana. Despite a 36-point, 12-rebound effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1, the Pacers took a 117-98 win behind balanced scoring from six players in double figures, led by Pascal Siakam’s 25 points. Milwaukee shot a dismal 9-of-37 from deep and struggled with ball movement. 

In Game 2, Damian Lillard returned from his blood clot scare but was still shaking off the rust, and the Pacers capitalized once more, winning 123-115 with every starter scoring at least 15 points. 

Milwaukee rebounded in Game 3, however, thanks to an historic showing from Giannis and a breakout 37-point performance from Gary Trent Jr., who buried nine threes. Still, the Bucks need more consistent help for Giannis, and while Trent’s Game 3 explosion helped them avoid a 3-0 deficit, it would be risky for them to bank on a repeat.

Both teams excelled at home during the regular season, and Milwaukee winning in Fiserv isn’t surprising. The question for Game 4 is whether the Bucks’ stars not named Giannis can step up again, or if Indiana’s balance keeps them in striking distance.

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks betting picks and predictions

Indiana Pacers +4.5 (-110)

Milwaukee put together its best performance of the series in Game 3, fueled by historic scoring nights from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Gary Trent Jr., who each dropped 37 points. Trent was a huge boost with Damian Lillard struggling mightily, shooting just 2-of-12 from the field. The Bucks won comfortably, but replicating that kind of shooting explosion, especially from Trent, feels unlikely.

Indiana's consistency and balance have kept them in every game so far. Pascal Siakam has been a steady force, scoring 24+ points in all three games while shooting 60% from the floor. Six Pacers are averaging at least 12 points per game in the series, and their offensive depth has helped offset Milwaukee’s edge inside with Giannis.

While Indiana's road record gives us slight pause, their ability to share the ball, limit turnovers and get contributions from multiple players should allow them to stay within the number. Milwaukee still faces major questions about where consistent secondary scoring will come from with Lillard clearly not 100% and relying on Trent to replicate a career night feels risky.

The Pacers’ ability to withstand Giannis’ greatness with superior depth makes them a strong play catching the points. Expect a more competitive effort after Game 3’s blowout, and for Indiana to keep it close or even steal another win outright.

Under 226.5 (-110)

While the spread leans toward the Bucks, the total is where things get more interesting – and we’re going under 226.5 tonight.

It’s the highest total on the Sunday slate by nearly nine points, and in the playoffs, high totals are typically a red flag. Defensive intensity naturally ramps up, and we’ve already seen two of the three games in this series stay under the total.

Milwaukee and Indiana have both shown solid defensive metrics despite the high pace: limiting points off turnovers, second-chance points and paint scoring effectively. Even with the offensive fireworks from Giannis, Siakam and the surprise boost from Trent Jr., there’s enough resistance on both ends to keep this from turning into another shootout.

Additionally, Indiana's scoring ceiling on the road dips, and Milwaukee’s secondary scorers remain inconsistent. While we can count on big games from Giannis and Siakam, the Bucks still need Lillard to find his rhythm, and outside of Game 3, Indiana’s backcourt production has been streaky.

Expect a tightly contested, playoff-style battle, something more in the ballpark of a 113-110 final, comfortably staying under the inflated total.

Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points (-115)

The best player prop bet heading into Game 4 is Pascal Siakam to score Over 21.5 points, and we feel confident he can even clear 25 tonight.

Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game during the regular season and was even better on the road, averaging 21 points on 52% shooting. Against Milwaukee specifically, Siakam has been a consistent problem, scoring 24+ points in six of seven total matchups this year, including the playoffs.

In this series alone, Siakam is averaging 25.7 points per game while shooting 60% from the field. His ability to score at all three levels, in the paint, from mid-range and from three, makes him incredibly tough for the Bucks’ front line to contain, especially with Giannis tasked with so much offensive responsibility.

Given Siakam’s consistency, efficiency and the volume of shots he’s getting, there’s no reason to expect him to slow down in a must-win environment for Indiana.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks odds

Indiana Pacers	+160 ML
Milwaukee Bucks	-190 ML
Spread	MIL Bucks -4.5
Total Points	O/U 226.5

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks player props

Player Points

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL Bucks)	O/U 32.5
Pascal Siakam (IND Pacers)	O/U 21.5
Damian Lillard (MIL Bucks)	O/U 19.5
Tyrese Haliburton (IND Pacers)	O/U 18.5
Myles Turner (IND Pacers)	O/U 14.5
Bobby Portis (MIL Bucks)	O/U 13.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.