Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 4: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Golden State Warriors look to push the young Houston Rockets to the brink on Monday night in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series.

After splitting the first two games in Houston, the Warriors defended home court in a gritty, low-scoring Game 3 win, rallying from a double-digit deficit to take a 2-1 series lead, despite worries of their early-season form (pre-Jimmy Butler trade) resurfacing in Game 3. It really is amazing the Warriors pulled it off without their two-way star and midseason acquisition.

Houston had a golden opportunity to steal Game 3 with Butler sidelined, but Stephen Curry once again proved why he's one of the greatest playoff performers ever.

Despite facing suffocating defense (triple teams and off-ball face guarding), Curry erupted for 36 points, seven rebounds and nine assists, while Golden State's role players like Quinten Post, Buddy Hield and Gary Payton II stepped up in a huge way. 

With momentum now firmly in Golden State's hands, it's hard to envision Houston flipping the script, especially at Chase Center.

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors betting picks and predictions

Golden State Warriors -4.0 (-110)

Golden State's defense was the story of Game 3, holding the Rockets to just 93 points in a physical, grinding battle. Even without Butler, the Warriors turned up the intensity, showing playoff savvy that Houston's young roster is still learning.

Butler is questionable for Game 4, but even if he doesn't suit up, the Warriors have the edge thanks to their defense, experience, and of course, Curry's brilliance. Golden State's decision to go bigger with Quinten Post and Jonathan Kuminga in the starting five paid off, giving them much-needed rebounding and size to match up with a freakishly long and athletic young Rockets squad.

Meanwhile, Houston continues to struggle in half-court sets, and their inconsistency on offense, especially from young star Jalen Green, has been glaring. Green scored just nine points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 3 after a 38-point explosion in Game 2. With Golden State's defensive pressure and the Chase Center crowd behind them, given it's the young Green's first postseason and given his volatile nature with low-floor, high-ceiling scoring, it's hard to trust Green and the Rockets to find enough offense to keep pace. 

Curry's worst outing in this series was 20 points in the Game 2 loss, and that defeat was compounded by Green's explosive output.

Curry, and Butler if he plays, have much higher scoring floors than any of the Rockets' primary options, and it's hard to bet on Green going crazy and Butler and Curry hitting their floor on scoring at the same time again.

Simply put, the Warriors know how important this game is. A 3-1 lead heading back to Houston would all but seal the series.

Expect another dogfight, but one that Golden State wins and covers.

Under 203.0 Total Points (-110)

Low-scoring games have been the theme of this series. Through three games, the combined point totals have been between 180 and 197, which are all comfortably under this modest line.

The Rockets have one of the league's best defenses, and Golden State has tightened up tremendously since Butler's arrival and during this playoff run. After Butler's injury, the Warriors leaned even harder into defense-first basketball in Game 3, making each possession a battle.

Houston ranks 15th out of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating, and Golden State isn't far ahead at 14th. In terms of effective field goal percentage, Houston is dead last among playoff teams, while Golden State's offense without Butler is often Curry-or-bust.

Considering the Warriors' dominance on defense without Butler and Houston's struggles to find big-time scoring outside of the occasional Green outburst, this total should comfortably stay Under once again.

The Warriors have only cleared 203.0 total points with the Rockets once in their eight matchups this season, and that game went into overtime. Expect a repeat of the physical, defensive battles we've seen all series.

Alperen Sengun Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105)

Anyone who knows the game of the young Alperen Sengun is not surprised to see the 22-year-old, 6-foot-11 versatile big has dominated the glass this series, averaging 12.0 rebounds per game through three games against Golden State.

After pulling down 16 and 11 boards in his last two contests, Sengun is in prime position to hit this Over again.

During the regular season, Sengun averaged 10.3 rebounds per game, and he's consistently dominated the Warriors' smaller lineups, averaging 11.2 rebounds in five regular-season games against the Warriors. Between the regular season and postseason, Sengun has grabbed 12+ rebounds in three of the last five meetings against Golden State.

The Warriors have no true size outside of Post to challenge Sengun consistently on the interior. Even with Golden State playing bigger lineups, Sengun's role on the glass is vital to Houston's game plan.

Given the pace and style of these games, there should be plenty of missed shots and rebounding opportunities.

At plus money, this prop is a strong play for Game 4.

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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors odds

Rockets ML	+150 ML
Warriors ML	-180 ML
Spread	Warriors -4.0
Total Points	O/U 203.0

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Player Props

Player Points

Stephen Curry (GSW)	O/U 27.5
Jimmy Butler (GSW)	O/U 19.5
Alperen Sengun (HOU)	O/U 18.5
Jalen Green (HOU)	O/U 18.5
Fred VanVleet (HOU)	O/U 14.5
Brandon Podziemski (GSW)	O/U 12.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.