Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Game 1 in Oklahoma City delivered absolute chaos. On a night when the top-seeded Thunder looked ready to roll to a double-digit home win, Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon turned things upside down.

The 2023 champion Nuggets rallied late behind Jokic's 42-point, 22-rebound masterclass and Gordon's game-winning three with two seconds remaining to steal the opener 121-119. The loss stunned a Thunder squad that had led by 10-14 points for most of the game and was riding high off a dominant sweep of Memphis in Round 1.

But Monday's madness doesn't shake confidence in Oklahoma City. The Thunder had control for 85% of that game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was up to snuff, posting 33 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists, while Alex Caruso (20 points, six assists, five steals) stepped up in a major way.

The rest of the supporting cast, however, namely Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, failed to convert big buckets down the stretch. That's the difference between 1-0 and 0-1. 

Now, with their backs against the wall and a series tie within reach, the Thunder return to the floor with urgency, adjustments and an 11-point spread to cover.

It's steep, but they can do it.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder betting picks and predictions

OKC Thunder -11 (-110)

The line has ballooned to -11 for Game 2, up from -9 in Game 1. And while that initially seems confusing, there's precedent in these playoffs for dominant Game 2 bounce backs from home favorites who dropped Game 1.

The Lakers and Rockets both lost their respective series openers at home in the first round of the 2025 playoffs, and then proceeded to win and cover Game 2 in convincing fashion. The Cavaliers' meltdown last night, with Tyrese Haliburton's insane four-point play, foiled this trend, but the young, explosive Thunder squad can get it back on track.

OKC still holds the top defensive rating in the postseason, despite ranking just 12th in limiting second-chance points and 8th in limiting opponent paint points, a key vulnerability when facing Jokic and Denver's interior-heavy attack. 

Expect Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault to make the necessary adjustments, particularly on the glass, where Denver crushed OKC 63-43 in Game 1.

Holmgren must show more physicality, Isaiah Hartenstein needs to stay hungry and impose his will, perhaps we see more minutes from Jaylin Williams, and wings like Lu Dort, Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Jalen Williams need to chip in more on the boards.

Speaking of Jalen Williams, he's a prime candidate for a bounce-back night. He shot just 5-of-20 in the opener but the 24-year-old versatile wing and first-time All-Star has been efficient and impactful all season. Denver sent multiple defenders at SGA late, daring the rest of the Thunder roster to beat them.

That plan worked in Game 1, but betting on a repeat against a team that is 72-15 on the year and very deep, is risky.

Expect OKC's secondary scorers like Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to capitalize on open looks this time around. Joe is a player OKC will look to get in a rhythm early in the game. He was 0 for 4 from the field in Game 1 but shot 42.8% from deep on close to five attempts per game against the Grizzlies in the first round. 

Denver's Game 1 comeback was fueled by desperation and grit felt following a brutal seven-game battle with the Clippers. The Nuggets remained in survival mode, and they executed. But Game 2 is a letdown spot.

With home-court now in their favor and the job already done in OKC, expect a more conservative approach from Denver.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are still plenty rested, now with renewed motivation and ready to even things up.

If the Thunder cover, then Game 3 in Denver becomes a must-watch.

And, although it is expected that the Thunder to cover -11 in Game 2, it's key that we note for the series that the Nuggets lineup that plays with Russell Westbrook in place of Michael Porter Jr. is now +42 in 75 playoff minutes, has attempted 31 more free throws than their opponent, has a 40% offensive rebounding rate and a 80% defensive rebounding rate.

Under 231 (-110)

The Game 1 total hit 240, but we're not chasing that over again.

The Thunder play fast, but they're fundamentally a defensive-minded team, ranked No. 1 in defensive rating in the postseason and in the regular season. They'll come out with a sharper game plan and better physicality, especially when it comes to limiting Denver's second-chance points and post touches. The Thunder can contain Denver as they held the Nuggets to just 103 points and 87 points in their two regular-season wins.

Expect Oklahoma City to pressure Jokic earlier on the perimeter, deny easy entry passes, and rotate quicker on Gordon, Braun and Westbrook cutting off-ball.

On the other end, the Thunder won't rely on isolation as much as they did late in Game 1.

More ball movement and pace should help them find rhythm, but also result in longer possessions against a physical Denver defense. And let's not forget: the Nuggets prefer a half-court tempo.

Jokic thrives when controlling the pace, and that often leads to fewer total possessions.

Add in playoff nerves, deeper defensive adjustments and slightly regressed shooting percentages, and the case for the under becomes clear. We expect the Thunder to reach the 115-point mark again, but the Nuggets, who must be gassed and are due for some regression, might not even crack triple digits. It won't be as clean or frantic as Game 1. It'll be a grinder. Take the under.

Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds (-105)

Let's not overthink this one. Jokic has absolutely owned the Thunder on the glass all season.

In five matchups this year, including Game 1, he's averaging 16.8 rebounds per game. He pulled down 22 boards in the opener, controlling the paint against Holmgren and the OKC frontline. While the Thunder will focus on team rebounding and boxing out, there's only so much they can do against Jokic's size, feel and physicality.

Even when Denver eases up offensively, Jokic remains relentless on the glass. In fact, he had a 21-rebound game in the first round vs. the Clippers' Ivica Zubac, one of the NBA's most physically imposing bigs. If Jokic plays 38+ minutes again, the over here is a gift.

Game 2 may not be another 40-point masterpiece from Jokic, especially if the Thunder pressure him more aggressively at the top of the key and force him to give it up early. But rebounding isn't scheme-dependent – it's effort, positioning and instinct.

And nobody in the league blends those traits better than the three-time MVP. We're locking in the over.

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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds

DEN Nuggets	+425 ML
OKC Thunder	-575 ML
Spread	OKC -11
Total Points	O/U 231

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder player props

Player Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)	O/U 33.5
Nikola Jokic (DEN)	O/U 28.5
Jalen Williams (OKC)	O/U 22.5
Jamal Murray (DEN)	O/U 19.5
Aaron Gordon (DEN)	O/U 16.5
Chet Holmgren (OKC)	O/U 15.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.