Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament continues with a win-or-go-home Western Conference matchup between two franchises that flipped their futures at the trade deadline.

The No. 10 Dallas Mavericks (39-43) are in Sacramento to face the No. 9 Kings (40-42) tonight at 10 PM ET on ESPN.

What was once Luka Doncic vs. De’Aaron Fox has become Anthony Davis vs. a retooled Sacramento squad led by DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis.

Both teams made headline-grabbing trades midseason, but specifically the Mavericks have struggled with injuries, inconsistency and a complete identity crisis.

Despite sweeping the regular season series against Dallas, Sacramento enters the Play-In with something to prove after missing the playoffs in a crowded West.

With stars healthy and a strong home-court advantage, the Kings are well-positioned to end the Mavs’ season.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings college betting picks and predictions

Kings -5.0 (-110)

This spread reflects both the oddsmakers’ caution and the general uncertainty around Dallas, which has been a complete enigma this season.

Yes, Anthony Davis is healthy and the Mavs have size again with PJ Washington, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford all available, but this is a team that ranks 24th in both offensive and defensive rating since the All-Star break and simply hasn't looked motivated down the stretch.

The Kings? They at least still own the seventh-best offensive rating in the league and DeRozan and LaVine are former All-Stars and proven iso-heavy players who can heat up and dominate games.

The duo also possesses a dynamic partnership with strong chemistry, going back to their days as Chicago Bulls teammates. 

Sabonis, another All-Star player, has been steady filling up the stat sheet all season. While Malik Monk’s absence hurts their point guard play, the group of DeRozan, LaVine, Sabonis, and Keegan Murray, plus Keon Ellis’ defensive ability potentially taking away Klay Thompson, gives the Kings a definitive star-power edge in a playoff-type setting.

All three Kings wins this season against Dallas came under very different roster circumstances, but the common theme was this: Sacramento’s shot-making consistently overwhelmed Dallas.

DeRozan dropped 42 in one of those games, and the Kings won by double digits twice, including by 24 in the third meeting while missing Sabonis. 

With home-court advantage and confidence from the season sweep over the Mavericks, back Sacramento to cover and move on.

Over 216.0 Total Points (-110)

Even with all the roster turmoil for both teams, this game still signals Over on the point total. These squads combined for 229 points per game against each other this season, which is well above tonight’s line of 216.0. 

This is a win-or-go-home scenario and, while Dallas will try to slow it down and pound the paint with Davis, Lively and Gafford, that game plan isn’t likely to hold up.

The Kings' offense, even without Monk, is led by a proven trio in DeRozan, LaVine and Sabonis, all of whom can create their own shots and push tempo under Doug Christie’s system.

The Mavs, meanwhile, may be outmatched in star power, but will lean heavily on Davis and hope PJ Washington or Thompson catch fire.

In the three head-to-head games this season, all three saw unique roster wrinkles. Tonight, for the first time, both teams will field something close to a full (yet very new) version of their rotation.

Since the All-Star Break, the Kings have been flying offensively (12th in ORtg) and leaky defensively (22nd in DRtg).

The Mavericks, despite an improved 6-3 record with Davis in the lineup, have still struggled mightily on the defensive end, suggesting their games tend to stay messy and high-variance.

Add in the fact the Mavs’ perimeter defense lacks the tools to contain DeRozan or LaVine, and we’ve got all the makings of another 220+ total.

DeMar DeRozan 25+ Points (-115)

While DeRozan and LaVine both could potentially pop off here, DeRozan has a lot more playoff experience, is the better postseason performer and is the better performer against Dallas this season.

In three games against the Mavs this year, DeRozan averaged 25.3 points, highlighted by a 42-point outburst. He shot a blistering 58 percent from the field, hit 50 percent of his threes, and averaged 4.3 free throws per game (making all of them).

This isn’t a fluke, and Dallas has no proven perimeter defender who can hang with DeRozan in isolation. Thompson has lost a step and will likely guard LaVine, while young players like Jaden Hardy and Max Christie lack the strength and experience to guard DeRozan and keep him in front.

In a must-win setting, expect Sacramento to put the ball in their veteran’s hands. If he’s taking 17+ shots and getting to his midrange spots, he should clear 25 points.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings odds

Dallas Mavericks	+165 ML
Sacramento Kings	-200 ML
Spread	Kings -5.0
Total Points	O/U 216.0

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings player props

Player Points

Anthony Davis (DAL Mavericks)	O/U 26.5
DeMar DeRozan (SAC Kings)	O/U 25.5
Zach LaVine (SAC Kings)	O/U 24.5
Domantas Sabonis (SAC Kings)	O/U 19.5
P.J. Washington (DAL Mavericks)	O/U 14.5
Klay Thompson (DAL Mavericks)	O/U 13.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.