Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

After two A+ performances in Cleveland, the Indiana Pacers are heading home with a stunning 2-0 series lead over the No. 1 seed Cavaliers.

Not only are the Pacers proving they belong in the second round, but they’re doing so emphatically, with a clutch Game 2 comeback capped by Tyrese Haliburton’s miraculous four-point play to silence Rocket Arena. Now, back in Indianapolis, the underdog Pacers are suddenly in full control of this second-round series.

Despite Cleveland finishing the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18), the Cavaliers haven’t solved the Pacers all year. Indiana defeated them three times in the regular season and has now won four straight against the Cavs at Rocket Mortgage Arena, including two critical postseason games.

However, a closer look reveals the story isn’t that simple: two of those regular-season wins came when the Cavs rested starters, and both were narrow victories. Still, the Pacers' playoff poise, balanced attack, and perimeter shooting have proven too much for a depleted and inconsistent Cavs squad.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 betting picks and predictions

Indiana Pacers +4.0 (-110)

It’s rare to see a team that’s up 2-0 in a playoff series come back home still listed as an underdog, but that’s where the Pacers sit heading into Game 3. This is a dangerous, confident Indiana team that has now won six of seven playoff games, scoring 117+ points in six of them.

They’ve already proven they can beat Cleveland’s best, and they’ve done so without a dominant scoring performance from anyone, including Haliburton. Indiana's depth, pace and consistency are the name of the game and form exactly what you want to back a home underdog in this spot.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are reeling. Despite two big-time performances from Donovan Mitchell – 33 points in Game 1 and 48 in Game 2 – Cleveland’s supporting cast has struggled to keep up.

Injuries to Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) left the Cavs short on both ends of the floor, and all three are listed as game-time decisions for Game 3. Even if they play, none are likely to be 100 percent.

And even if Cleveland improves its three-point shooting – a must after going a combined 18-of-76 in the first two games (23.7 percent) – the question remains whether the Cavs can slow down Indiana’s balanced offense enough to steal one on the road.

We’re betting against it. Between Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, and Benedict Mathurin off the bench, the Pacers have shown they can effectively support stars in Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, match firepower and make timely stops.

Even when trailing, Indiana has found ways to rally and close, aided by strong transition scoring, elite assist rates and hot perimeter shooting (41.3 percent from three this postseason). It’s not a fluke. Even if Indiana is down entering the fourth quarter, as they have been in both games in this series, the confidence gained in these late-game situations will now have the bonus of home crowd support. That means Indiana can absolutely roar back and either win or keep it to one possession.

The Pacers look like the steadier side once again in Game 3.

Over 228.5 total points (-110)

When you watch these two teams play, one trend becomes very clear: this series is played at Indiana’s pace. The Pacers have dictated tempo all year, as they rank among the fastest teams in the league, and Cleveland has had no answer for it in the first two games.

The Cavs have leaned into the shootout, and while they’ve missed more than their fair share of threes, the opportunities have been there. That sets up Game 3 nicely for the Over.

Indiana has scored at least 117 points in six of their seven playoff games, and there’s no reason to think they won’t reach that threshold again at home. They’ve now scored 120 and 121 in two games against one of the league’s best defenses.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, will need to shoot better to stay competitive, and they likely will. Even with their struggles against Indiana, Cleveland still ranks second in three-point percentage in the playoffs overall (38.5 percent), thanks to their dismantling of Miami in Round 1.

A correction is coming, and the Cavs' floor spacing with Mitchell, Max Strus and Sam Merrill offers plenty of upside.

The injury concerns for Cleveland could actually help the Over here. Without Mobley’s rim protection or Garland’s ability to control tempo, Indiana should be able to get downhill and generate quality looks early in the shot clock.

Game 3 should follow the same script as Games 1 and 2: fast tempo, high shot volume and clutch offense from both sides. With the total sitting at 228.5, there's value in another shootout happening in Indiana.

Andrew Nembhard: Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)

There may be no unsung hero in these playoffs more reliable than Andrew Nembhard.

The third-year guard has quietly been one of Indiana’s steadiest contributors, and his all-around production continues to show up in the box score. Nembhard has gone over this PRA number (22.5) in six of seven playoff games this postseason, including each of his last four. And against Cleveland, he’s been even more impressive.

In Game 1, Nembhard posted 29 PRA, and he followed that in Game 2 with 33. He’s averaging 15.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists in the playoffs, adding up to a 25.4 PRA average.

Not only is he scoring efficiently, but his ability to create for others has given Indiana a major boost. With Haliburton often drawing defensive attention and Siakam attacking mismatches, Nembhard has found plenty of room to operate with and without the ball.

The biggest reason to trust this prop? The passing. Nembhard has logged 6+ assists in four of his last seven games, and with the Cavs forced to scramble defensively due to health and rotation issues, there’s every reason to believe his assist numbers stay high. Throw in a few rebounds and a safe 12-14 points, and this prop has a strong floor.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers odds

Cleveland Cavaliers	-170 ML
Indiana Pacers	+145 ML
Spread	CLE Cavaliers -4.0
Total Points	O/U 228.5

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers player props

Player Points

Donovan Mitchell (CLE Cavaliers)	O/U 29.5
Tyrese Haliburton (IND Pacers)	O/U 19.5
Pascal Siakam (IND Pacers)	O/U 18.5
Evan Mobley (CLE Cavaliers)	O/U 17.5
Darius Garland (CLE Cavaliers)	O/U 16.5
Myles Turner (IND Pacers)	O/U 15.5

Read the latest NBA news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.