Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes UFC 304: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The world’s most popular MMA promotion travels back to England for UFC 304 this Saturday night, with Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes for the interim heavyweight championship serving as the co-main event.

There are several other English fighters in action on the card, but here, we'll share our picks and predictions for this interim title bout.

UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes betting picks and predictions

Tom Aspinall to win (-350)

It’s certainly not an outside-the-box pick, but we’re predicting Aspinall to retain the interim heavyweight title in front of his home crowd. It’s clear that we aren’t the only ones who feel this way, as he originally opened as a favorite of around -200 odds before shortening to his current -350 price.

As you can see, that has gotten significantly shorter, so this is a pick that could be used as a leg of a money line parlay. Regardless, Aspinall is one of the most complete heavyweight fighters we have ever seen in the UFC, which means he won’t mind whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground.

If anything, Blaydes would prefer to show off his wrestling on the ground, but he won’t have that significant advantage like he normally does against other big fighters. Despite Aspinall having serious power, he is just as strong on the ground.

The Brit is a black belt in jiu-jitsu with the speed of a middleweight. Of course, the rebuttal will be the first fight between these two, but outside of another freak injury - which helped Blaydes beat Aspinall in 2022 - we simply don’t see a world in which Aspinall takes a loss.

After all, he has just three in total with a 14-3-0 record in the UFC. To go along with our assessment that he is a truly complete fighter, he has the advantage in nearly every metric outside of reach, which is just a two-inch differential. Look for Aspinall to get his revenge from their July 2022 fight.

Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)

As for an Aspinall vs. Blaydes straight pick with much more reasonable odds, we’re targeting the Brit to get the job done by KO/TKO/DQ.

Overall, we’re looking for him to get the victory inside the distance, so the only omission with this approach is a win by submission.

As great as Aspinall’s jiu-jitsu is, that is still the more unlikely outcome, and the +400 odds support that. His last submission victory came prior to the first fight between these two, and in his two fights since, he has had KO/TKO victories in both.

Better yet, of his 14 UFC victories, 10 of them have come by way of KO/TKO.

Let’s also remember that with Aspinall being a UK native, he’s going to be able to adjust and train accordingly for this late night/early morning fight. It’s not exactly a high-altitude situation, but it’s still one in which we may see Blaydes get gassed earlier than usual.

Furthermore, following his win over Aspinall due to injury, Blaydes lost his next fight by KO/TKO to Sergei Pavlovich. In his other fights against top heavyweights like Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, he was also knocked out.

Even with him getting a victory in his fight against Jailton Almeida in March, he was still taken to the ground with relative ease.

The bottom line is that Aspinall should prove that he is the better all-around fighter, retain the title and set up a potential future rubber match between these two fighters.

Over 1.5 total rounds (+125)

If you’d like yet another approach to the Aspinall vs. Blaydes fight, we also have a pick on the total rounds. It may seem like a counterintuitive one given that we expect Aspinall to win inside the distance, but we only need the fight to go Over 1.5 rounds to get great plus-money odds.

Keep in mind that with this being a title fight, it is a five-round bout, rather than the standard three rounds.

Aspinall is certainly the more complete fighter, but Blaydes will still have the confidence that he can be competitive due to winning the first fight between these two. That’s not enough to win someone a fight, but it’s enough for him to keep it going for at least two rounds.

UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds

Tom Aspinall	-350 ML
Curtis Blaydes	+275 ML

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.