Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili UFC 306: Picks, Predictions and Odds

One of the most anticipated fight cards of the year takes place this weekend, with UFC 306 featuring a Main Event between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

The fight between O’Malley and Dvalishvili is scheduled to take place on Saturday, September 14 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada and will be for the UFC Bantamweight title, currently held by O’Malley. 

UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili betting picks and predictions

Merab Dvalishvili to Win (+110)

Our main prediction for the fight between O’Malley and Dvalishvili is for the latter to pick up the win that would see him crowned UFC Bantamweight champion.

Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-4 and 10-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41 percent, while he is absorbing 2.37 strikes and has a striking defense of 57 percent. 

Grappling is where Dvalishvili is more likely to excel, averaging 6.43 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36 percent and his takedown defense is 80 percent.

On the other side, O’Malley enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 11-1 in the UFC. He is known for his elite striking, averaging 7.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61 percent, while he is absorbing 3.52 strikes and has a striking defense of 62 percent.

His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging just 0.35 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 42 percent and a takedown defense of 62 percent.

O’Malley is the slight favorite, which is warranted given that he is the one holding the Bantamweight title.

That being said, Dvalishvili has won 10 UFC fights in a row and he has never lost a fight by KO/TKO. He has an elite ability to grapple, an area that O’Malley has not had a ton of success in and the challenger can land the win here.

Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-130)

Our second bet is for this fight to go the distance. O’Malley has indeed seen the majority of his career MMA fights end inside the distance, but he has seen two of his last three UFC bouts go the distance.

As for Dvalishvili, he has seen 16 of his 21 career fights go the distance including nine of his last 10 UFC fights.

O’Malley has only ever lost by finish once and that was over four years ago in 2020.

UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Odds

Sean O’Malley	-138 ML
Merab Dvalishvili	+110 ML

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.