Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley: UFC 316 Picks, Predictions and Odds

The month of June has only just begun and already we have one of the year’s top UFC events lined up for this weekend.

UFC 316 will feature a UFC Bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley as the Main Event, which is a rematch of their UFC 306 fight last September, which Dvalishvili won via unanimous decision.

The event is scheduled to take place on Saturday, June 7, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

The fight card is expected to begin at 6:00 PM ET with the Early Preliminaries, followed by the Preliminary Card at 8:00 PM ET and the Main Card at 10:00 PM ET. Additionally, the UFC 316 Main Card is currently available to purchase through ESPN+ Pay-Per-View.

Our article will give you a full preview of the UFC 316 Main Event between Dvalishvili and O'Malley by providing you with our two best bets. Further, we will include the current moneyline odds for both Dvalishvili and O'Malley.

UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley betting picks and predictions

Merab Dvalishvili Win by Decision (-163)

Our first best bet for the UFC 316 Main Event between Dvalishvili and O'Malley will target the former to win by decision and retain his UFC Bantamweight title.

Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-4 and 12-2 in the UFC. His most recent fight was in January 2025 against Umar Murmagomedov, a fight he won by unanimous decision. 

The Machine has been an excellent striker throughout his entire UFC career, averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute, and he has a striking accuracy of 42%. In terms of his defense, Dvalishvili absorbs 2.51 significant strikes and has a striking defense of 56%.

His grappling ability has been even more elite than his striking, averaging 5.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. Further, he has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 82%.

Considering the Georgian is currently the one holding the UFC Bantamweight title, he is the clear favorite in this fight.

This fight is also a rematch, as Dvalishvili and O'Malley fought at UFC 306 back in September 2024. In the first fight, Dvalishvili easily won by unanimous decision, outstriking O'Malley 82 to 47 and landing six takedowns against him.

While this is a rematch and O'Malley is expected to put up more of a fight, Dvalishvili’s grappling will likely once again be the deciding factor.

O'Malley tends to be uncomfortable on the ground and while his takedown defense is 61%, he failed to prevent many takedown attempts from Dvalishvili in the first fight. 

Dvalishvili is also not known for finishing many of his opponents, as he looks to wear them down with his grappling. He has won 11 of his 12 UFC fights by unanimous decision, so backing Dvalishvili to win by decision at -163 will be our best bet.

Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-260)

Our second-best bet for the UFC 316 Main Event will focus on backing this fight to go the distance.

Dvalishvili has seen 18 of his 23 career MMA fights go the distance, including 12 of his 14 UFC fights. He has also seen his last five consecutive UFC fights go the distance.

As for O'Malley, he has a much higher finish rate and has seen just six of his 20 career MMA fights go the distance. This includes five of his 13 UFC fights.

That being said, O'Malley has seen each of his last two UFC fights go the distance, including his lopsided loss to Dvalishvili.

Given that we believe this fight is going to end in a similar fashion to the first fight, backing this fight to go the distance at -260 will be our second-best bet.

UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley odds

	Merab Dvalishvili	Sean O'Malley
Money Line	-275	+225
By Decision or Technical Decision	-163	+600
By KO, TKO or DQ	+850	+400
By Submission	+850	+2500

Total Rounds	Over	Under
1.5	-1100	+600
2.5	-550	+350
3.5	-380	+270
4.5	-300	+210

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.