Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg UFC 305: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Partner Authors Updated: Aug 15 2024 13:23

UFC 305 takes place this weekend, and it features Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg in a flyweight bout in the co-main event.

The event is scheduled to take place on Saturday, August 17 and will be held at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

This fight is expected to get underway at 11:30 PM ET.

Our article will give you our two best bets for this UFC 305 co-main event between Kara-France and Erceg and we will also provide you with the money line odds for both fighters.

UFC 305: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg betting picks and predictions

Steve Erceg Money Line (-175)

Our first pick for the co-main event at UFC 305 between Kara-France and Erceg will target Erceg to win this fight.

Kara-France comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-11 and he is 7-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.57 significant strikes per minute, however, his striking accuracy is just 39%.

As for his defense, Kara-France is absorbing 3.24 strikes per minute and he has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging just 0.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Kara-France has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 88%.

On the other side is Erceg, who comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2 and has a 3-1 record in the UFC. His striking is solid, averaging 4.52 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking accuracy of 49%.

Erceg is absorbing 4.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.24 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26% and a takedown defense of 60%.

Erceg is the favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best bet. His striking volume is slightly worse than Kara-France, but he has a clear advantage when it comes to grappling and is much more accurate with his punches.

Further, Kara-France has lost each of his last two fights in the UFC, so for that reason, backing Erceg on the money line is our first best bet for this UFC 305 Co-Main Event.

Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-210)

To go along with our first pick for Erceg to win this fight outright, our second pick is for this fight to go the distance.

In his career, Erceg has seen six of his 14 fights go the distance, but in the UFC, he has seen three of his four fights end by decision.

As for Kara-France, he has seen 15 of his 35 career fights go the distance. This includes seven of his 10 UFC fights and two of his last three fights.

Further, Erceg has never lost by finish and, while Kara-France has a total of six losses by finish, he has not lost by finish since 2022 and has only lost by finish once in his last five fights.

Because both Erceg and Kara-France have recently been seeing their fights go the distance, backing this fight to go the distance is be our second best bet.