Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev: UFC 313 Picks, Predictions and Odds

The co-main event of UFC 313 features a highly anticipated UFC Lightweight fight between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.

UFC 313 is set to take place on Saturday, March 8th, 2025 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will begin with Early Preliminaries at 6:30 PM ET, followed by the Preliminaries at about 8 PM ET and the Main Card at 10 PM ET.

Gaethje was originally due to face Dan Hooker in a much-anticipated contest, but the New Zealand fighter was forced to pull out late last month after sustaining a hand injury.

Several opponents were considered to step in to face Gaethje, but the UFC eventually chose Fiziev, setting up a rematch of their fight in March 2023.

Gaethje won that showdown at UFC 286 by majority decision, but will he be able to follow up or will Fiziev, at late notice, gain his revenge?

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev betting picks and predictions

Justin Gaethje Moneyline (+130)

Our first best bet for this co-main event fight between Gaethje and Fiziev will target Gaethje to win. 

Gaethje enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-5 and 8-5 in the UFC. He has been a prolific striker throughout his career, averaging 6.78 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 59 percent. 

In terms of his defense, Gaethje absorbs 7.46 significant strikes and has a striking defense of 52 percent. As for his grappling, Gaethje has not had prominent grappling throughout his career, averaging just 0.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he has a strong takedown defense of 75 percent.

While Fiziev is listed as the moderate favorite, Gaethje looks to be a good betting option for pulling off the upset. Gaethje’s striking is far superior to that of Fiziev, while neither fighter has good enough grappling ability to raise a concern. 

Gaethje is also 2-1 in his last three UFC fights, which includes that victory over Fiziev two years ago, while he followed that up with a knockout success over Dustin Poirier before he himself was stopped by Max Holloway during his most recent fight in April 2024.

Fiziev, meanwhile, has lost his last two fights and has not been seen since suffering a TKO defeat to Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023 when he sustained a serious knee injury in the second round. 

That must lead to concerns over the Azerbaijani’s fitness and further underline why Gaethje is the value pick for this Lightweight contest.

Fight to go the Distance - No (-130)

Our second pick for this Co-Main Event is for this fight to end inside the distance. 

Gaethje has seen 11 of his 13 UFC fights end inside the distance, which includes four of his last six visits to the Octagon, while Fiziev has also seen four of his last six UFC fights end inside the distance.

While their first meeting in London may have been decided by majority decision, this one feels like it could end a lot more emphatically, particularly given the question marks surrounding how ready Fiziev is for this fight following his late call up.

All things considered, backing this fight to end inside the distance could prove the way to go.

UFC 313: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev UFC 313 odds

	Justin Gaethje	Rafael Fiziev
Money Line	+130	-160
By Decision or Technical Decision	+300	+225
By KO, TKO or DQ	+350	+187
By Submission	+2800	+2000

Total Rounds	Over	Under
1.5	-235	+175
2.5	-130	-110

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.