Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo: Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 301 is set for this weekend and besides the Main Event featuring a Flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg, the Co-Main Event will see Jonathan Martinez take on Jose Aldo in a UFC Bantamweight fight.

This fight is scheduled for Saturday, May 4th and will be held at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

If you wish to watch this fight on Saturday night between Martinez and Aldo, you can order UFC 301 through ESPN+.

UFC 301: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo betting picks and predictions

Jonathan Martinez to Win (-160)

Our main prediction regarding the Co-Main Event between Jonathan Martinez and Jose Aldo at UFC 301 on Saturday night will target Martinez to win. 

Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-4 and he is 10-3 in UFC, most recently beating Adrian Yanez in August of 2023 via KO/TKO in the second round. 

Known for his striking, Martinez is averaging 4.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50 percent. In terms of his defense, Martinez is absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58 percent. 

However, grappling is not his strong suit as Martinez is averaging just 0.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.1 submissions over the same time period. He also has a takedown accuracy of 41 percent with a takedown defense of 69 percent.

Aldo on the other hand, comes into this fight with an MMA record of 31-8 and he is 21-7 in UFC. 

Despite the success he has had over the course of his career, Aldo is coming off a loss in his most recent fight to Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision back in August 2022. 

He is averaging 3.57 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46 percent. His defense is very similar to that of Martinez as he is absorbing 3.74 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60 percent. 

Similar to Martinez, Aldo also does not excel at grappling as he is averaging just 0.49 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.1 submissions during the same time period. He also has a takedown accuracy of 54 percent and a takedown defense of 91 percent.

Overall, Martinez is the clear favorite to win this fight. 

Jonathan Martinez to win win by KO, TKO or DQ (+375)

Californian Martinez has won his last six UFC fights in a row, while Aldo is an inconsistent 3-3 in his last six UFC fights. 

Martinez also has the clear edge in striking and has only lost once by finish in his career, which is a much superior record when compared to Aldo, who has lost five times by finish.

Because Martinez is in far better form than Aldo, and Aldo has not fought in well over a year, backing Martinez to win by either KO, TKO or DQ could prove a shrewd option.

UFC 301: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo odds

Jonathan Martinez	-160 ML
Jose Aldo	+130 ML

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.