With 2024 beginning to wind down some of the best UFC fights of the year are looming large, including the UFC 309 main event featuring Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic fighting for the UFC Heavyweight title on Saturday, November 16.
Miocic and Jones were slated to fight a year ago at UFC 295, but torn pectoral tendon forced Jones to pull out of the bout.
Both fighters have had long layoffs recently. Jones' last fight was in March 2023, but that was his first bout in three years. Miocic has not fought since March 2021, where he lost to Francis Ngannou.
Our article will preview the Main Event between Jones and Miocic and we will provide you with our two best bets for this fight.
UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic betting picks and predictions
Jon Jones to Win by KO/TKO (+120)
Our first prediction for the Main Event featuring Jones and Miocic will target Jones to win by KO/TKO.
Jones enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-1 and he is 21-1 in the UFC. He is a pure striker, averaging 4.29 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 57 percent.
His striking defense is also excellent, absorbing 2.22 strikes, and has a striking defense of 64 percent.
Jones also has solid grappling, averaging 1.93 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 45 percent and his takedown defense is 95 percent.
Jones has a total of 17 wins by finish in his career, 10 of those coming by KO/TKO and seven by submission.
Miocic, on the other hand, has three losses by KO/TKO in his career. Because Miocic has struggled recently with getting knocked out, backing Jones to win by KO/TKO will be our best bet.
Over 1.5 rounds (-165)
Our second prediction for the Main Event at UFC 309 will focus on this fight to go Over 1.5 rounds.
Jones has certainly had some quick finishes in his career, but recently he has seen the majority of his fights go Over 1.5 rounds. In fact, he has seen nine of his last 10 UFC fights go into the second round at least.
As for Miocic, he has seen three of his last five UFC fights go Over 1.5 rounds. With the magnitude of this showdown, expect both fighters to be at their best and last multiple rounds.
For that reason, backing this fight to go Over 1.5 rounds will be our second-best bet.
UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds
Jon Jones | -700 ML |
Stipe Miocic | +500 ML |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
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