Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira: UFC 317 Picks, Predictions and Odds

An epic card is set for UFC 317 this weekend with two title fights taking place, with the Main Event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira in the UFC Lightweight division.

UFC 317 is set to get underway on Saturday, June 28th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action will begin with the Early Preliminaries at 6:30 PM ET, followed by the Preliminaries at 8 PM ET, and the Main Card at approximately 10 PM ET.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira betting picks and predictions

Ilia Topuria to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-175)

Our first bet for the Main Event at UFC 317 will target Topuria to win by KO/TKO/DQ to claim the now vacant UFC Lightweight division title, as former title holder, Islam Makhachev, decided to move up into the Welterweight division. 

Topuria enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-0, and 8-0 in the UFC. He most recently defeated Max Holloway by KO/TKO back in October 2024 to defend his then-UFC Featherweight division title.

Topuria has always been an excellent striker and, as it stands, he is averaging 4.69 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47%. 

His defense has also been solid, absorbing 3.84 strikes per minute with a striking defense of 64%. Not only is Topuria a prolific striker, but he also has above-average grappling ability.

Topuria is averaging 2.02 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 61% and a takedown defense of 92%.

Topuria is no doubt the heavy favorite in this fight, therefore we will be looking at how he may win. He has won by KO/TKO/DQ six times in his MMA career, which includes each of his last two UFC fights and five of his last seven. As for Oliveira, he has lost by KO/TKO/DQ four times in his career, all of which have been in the UFC. 

Topuria has the clear edge in striking volume and has an elite takedown defense to counter Oliveira’s advantage in grappling. For that reason, backing Topuria to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-175) will be our first selection for the UFC 317 Main Event.

Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)

Our second bet will focus on backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds. As dominant as Topuria has been, he does not often win his fights quickly. In fact, his last four UFC fights have all gone over 1.5 rounds. Further, five of his eight career UFC fights have gone over 1.5 rounds.

As for Oliveira, he has seen each of his last two UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, and three of his last four fights. Because both fighters tend to go deep into their fights, backing over 1.5 Rounds (-140) will be our second bet for this UFC 317 Main Event.

UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira odds

Fighter	Money Line
Ilia Topuria	-500
Charles Oliveira	+380

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.